Match report →
DC United – New York City0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.16
Total xG
2.79
New York City
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Tai Baribo not in squad (16 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Bartlett not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 64% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Agustín Ojeda on the bench (5 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Andrés Perea not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) |
Key factors
- Form: DC United went winless in their last 5 matches with 5 losses, New York City recorded 1 win and 3 draws
- Table: New York City is 11th with 39 points from 33 matches, while DC United is 14th with 33 points
- Tactics: New York City averaged 5 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, DC United 3 per game
Risks
- Head-to-head: DC United won 2 of the 5 meetings, compared to 1 win for New York City, winning 2-0 in the last encounter
- Away form: New York City averages 1.12 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 1.76 at home
All probabilities
Result
DC United25%
Draw28%
New York City47%
Double chance
DC United or draw53%
New York City or draw75%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.16 : 1.63, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- DC United: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New York City with Hannes Wolf starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (16/6 games, last 30)
- DC United: 73% of all goals in the first half (8 of 11, last 12 games)
Lineups
DC United 4-4-2 · New York City 4-2-3-1
DC United
- 24 J. Farr
- 2 K. Nono
- 5 S. Hefti
- 13 S. Nealis
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 32 O. Avilez
- 4 M. Peltola
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 23 B. Servania
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 6 J. Sands
- 55 K. Alexander Parks
- 17 H. Wolf
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
Substitutes
- 8 J. Stroud
- 12 W. Antley
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 48 G. Turner
- 40 K. Reynoso
- 9 B. Traore
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 27 C. Flax
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
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