Match report →
Austin – Portland Timbers0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Austin
1.22
Total xG
2.97
Portland Timbers
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austin | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.94 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Myrto Uzuni on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Facundo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| J. Rosales on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Jimer Fory on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Portland Timbers with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, Austin with 1 win
- Attack: Portland Timbers average 1.82 goals per match in the league this season, Austin concede 1.91 per match
- Table: Portland Timbers are 8th in the league with 43 points from 33 matches, Austin 14th with 34 points
Risks
- Away: Portland Timbers concede 2.06 goals per match away from home in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Across the last 5 meetings, Austin won 2, Portland Timbers won 2, with 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Austin25%
Draw26%
Portland Timbers49%
Double chance
Austin or draw51%
Portland Timbers or draw75%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.22 : 1.75, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (8 of 12 total)
- Portland Timbers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Austin: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Austin: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Austin: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)
- Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (17/5 games, last 30)
Lineups
Austin 3-4-3 · Portland Timbers 4-3-3
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 5 O. Svatok
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 3 M. Desler
- 38 E. Torres
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 32 M. Burton
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 21 C. Ramírez
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 20 F. Surman
- 2 J. Waterman
- 23 I. Smith
- 73 E. Izoita
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 14 V. Janssen
- 99 K. Velde
Substitutes
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 2 R. Thomas
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 10 M. Uzuni
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 12 D. Las
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 4 K. Miller
- 15 E. Miller
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 17 C. Bassett
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 27 J. Fory
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
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