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Cincinnati – Nashville SC0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
1.85
Total xG
3.44
Nashville SC
1.59
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.55 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Jeison Palacios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Cincinnati have 3 wins from their last 5 matches with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded
- Home: Cincinnati score 2.44 goals per game at home in the league this season
Risks
- Table: Nashville SC are 1st in the league with 74 points from 33 matches, Cincinnati 7th with 46 points
- Away: Nashville SC have conceded 0.69 goals per game away from home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati43%
Draw25%
Nashville SC32%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw68%
Nashville SC or draw57%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.85 : 1.59, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Cincinnati: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Nashville SC: 42% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (11 of 26)
- Cincinnati: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Inter Miami: 2 goals (80', 86')
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-4-1-2 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 24 K. Smith
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 11 S. Gidi
- 23 D. Douděra
- 20 P. Bucha
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 9 A. Denkey
- 16 T. Barlow
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 5 J. Maher
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 11 E. Saad
- 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
- 2 A. Powell
- 12 M. Robinson
- 13 E. Louro
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 27 B. Anunga
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 70 J. Martínez Torres
- 1 J. Willis
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 19 A. Muyl
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 22 J. Bauer
- 41 W. Madrigal Molina
- 21 T. Williams
- 14 S. Mohammed
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