Match report →
Philadelphia Union – Toronto4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
2.63
Total xG
3.65
Toronto
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +1.11 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Milan Iloski not in squad (19 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dániel Sallói on the bench (9 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Theo Corbeanu on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Niklas Dorsch on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Philadelphia scores 1.75 goals per game at home in the league, Toronto concedes 1.88 away
- Table: Philadelphia is 6th with 47 points after 33 games, Toronto is 12th with 39 points
Risks
- Form: Philadelphia recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: 3 of the last 5 meetings ended in a draw, with 1 win for each team
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union71%
Draw18%
Toronto12%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw88%
Toronto or draw29%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.63 : 1.02, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
3:0
8%
4:1
5%
4:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 2 goals (90+3', 90+5')
- Toronto: 9 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Toronto: 80% of all goals in the second half (16 of 20, last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: 74% of all goals in the second half (23 of 31, last 12 games)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · Toronto 4-2-3-1
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 9 B. Damiani
- 33 Q. Sullivan
Toronto
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 22 R. Laryea
- 38 J. Gilman
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 96 R. Chukwu
- 21 J. Osorio
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 27 A. Piedrahita Díaz
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 90 L. Morgan
- 9 J. Sargent
Substitutes
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 68 J. Griffin
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 19 K. Franklin
- 20 D. Salloi
- 44 R. Edwards
- 77 A. De Rosario
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