Match report →
Houston Dynamo – Dallas2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.54
Total xG
2.66
Dallas
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.85 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Agustín Bouzat on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Logan Farrington not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Valiente on the bench (2 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Santiago Moreno on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Kaick not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Osaze Urhoghide on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ran Binyamin on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Houston Dynamo concedes 0.86 goals per game at home in the league this season, Dallas 1.67 away
- Possession: Houston Dynamo averaged 49.6% possession in the last 5 matches, Dallas 43.8%
Risks
- Form: Houston Dynamo is winless in the last 5 matches with 3 draws and 2 losses, Dallas won 3 matches
- Table: Dallas is 3rd in the league this season with 50 points, Houston Dynamo is 5th with 46 points
- Head-to-head: Dallas won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Houston Dynamo, with 1 loss and 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo46%
Draw29%
Dallas26%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw74%
Dallas or draw54%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Houston Dynamo: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1 · Dallas 3-4-2-1
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 11 L. Ennali
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 21 F. Negri
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 9 L. Foster
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 18 S. Moore
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 32 N. Norris
- 14 H. Johansson
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 12 C. Cappis
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 7 D. Job
- 9 P. Musa
Substitutes
- 17 N. Markanich
- 4 M. Saracchi Pintos
- 23 D. McGuire
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 14 D. Holmes
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 28 S. Sarver
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 27 C. Swann
- 40 J. Sirois
- 10 S. Moreno
- 33 C. Holstad
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