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Colorado Rapids – Chicago Fire2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.56
Total xG
2.88
Chicago Fire
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Donavan Phillip on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Kosi Thompson not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Josh Atencio not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Robert Lewandowski on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Colorado Rapids score 1.81 goals per game at home, Chicago Fire concede 1.69 per game away
- Form: Colorado Rapids are unbeaten in their last 5 games, Chicago Fire lost 2 of their last 5 games
- Attack: Chicago Fire score 1.69 goals per game away in the league, Colorado Rapids 1.81 at home
Risks
- Table: Chicago Fire are 5th in the league with 52 points, Colorado Rapids are 7th with 43 points
- Attack: Chicago Fire scored 1.78 goals per game in the league this season, Colorado Rapids 1.38 per game
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids42%
Draw28%
Chicago Fire31%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw69%
Chicago Fire or draw59%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.56 : 1.32, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colorado Rapids: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (13 points lost)
- Chicago Fire: 40% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 20)
- Chicago Fire: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Colorado Rapids: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 70% of all goals in the second half (14 of 20, last 12 games)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1 · Chicago Fire 4-4-2
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 77 D. Yapi
- 7 M. Whittaker
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 3 J. Elliott
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 32 N. Allen
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 19 J. Bamba
- 18 J. Gomez
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
Substitutes
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 16 A. Harris
- 21 T. Ku-Dipietro
- 24 N. Cobb
- 99 J. Travis
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 32 D. Phillip
- 61 B. Dowd
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 10 A. Russo Franco
- 23 A. Mekvabishvili
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 15 A. Gutman
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