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Vancouver Whitecaps – Seattle Sounders5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.05
Total xG
3.20
Seattle Sounders
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vancouver Whitecaps | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.70 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Emmanuel Sabbi not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Andrés Cubas not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ralph Priso on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Gomez on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Hassani Dotson on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Vancouver Whitecaps scores 2.44 goals per game at home in the league, Seattle Sounders 1.06 goals per game away
- Table: Vancouver Whitecaps is 1st in the league with 58 points, Seattle Sounders 9th with 43 points
Risks
- Tactics: Seattle Sounders averaged 5 shots on target per game in recent matches, Vancouver Whitecaps 3.6 per game
All probabilities
Result
Vancouver Whitecaps57%
Draw24%
Seattle Sounders20%
Double chance
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw80%
Seattle Sounders or draw43%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.05 : 1.15, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 79% of all goals in the second half (15 of 19, last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Jordan Morris starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (14/8 games, last 30)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Paul Arriola: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 8 O. Larraz
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 25 R. Gauld
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 24 B. White
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16 A. Roldan
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 37 S. Brunell
- 7 C. Roldan
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 13 J. Morris
- 9 D. Joveljić
Substitutes
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 13 T. Müller
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 4 R. Veselinović
- 63 J. Selemani
- 22 K. Poku
- 8 C. Clark
- 17 P. Arriola
- 24 S. Frei
- 31 H. Dotson
- 35 A. Lopez
- 90 S. Gomez
- 4 R. Sailor
- 20 K. Kim
- 39 S. Hawkins
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