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Portland Timbers – Houston Dynamo3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.72
Total xG
2.77
Houston Dynamo
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.30 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Jimer Fory on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Guilherme not in squad (16 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Héctor Herrera not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Portland Timbers average 2.12 goals per game at home in the league, Houston Dynamo concede 1.56 per game away
- Shots: Portland Timbers average 6.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Houston Dynamo 2.8 per game
- Defence: Houston Dynamo allowed 2.11 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.4 goals per game
Risks
- Table: Houston Dynamo are 5th in the league with 51 points, Portland Timbers 11th with 40 points
- Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Portland Timbers
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers52%
Draw27%
Houston Dynamo22%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw78%
Houston Dynamo or draw49%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.72 : 1.05, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Houston Dynamo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)
- Houston Dynamo: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (16/5 games, last 30)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1 · Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 20 F. Surman
- 2 J. Waterman
- 23 I. Smith
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 73 E. Izoita
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 99 K. Velde
- 14 V. Janssen
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 11 L. Ennali
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 21 F. Negri
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 9 L. Foster
Substitutes
- 15 E. Miller
- 16 S. Jura
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 88 G. Guerra
- 17 C. Bassett
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 27 J. Fory
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 14 D. Holmes
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 35 L. Erb
- 37 G. Rivera
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