Match report →
Colorado Rapids – Vancouver Whitecaps1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.34
Total xG
3.02
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Donavan Phillip on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Reggie Cannon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Mathías Laborda on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Vancouver is 1st in the league this season with 55 points, Colorado is 9th with 39 points
- Home/Away: Vancouver averages 1.87 goals per game away in the league this season, Colorado 1.87 goals per game at home
- Form: Colorado is winless in the last 5 matches (4 draws, 1 loss), Vancouver won 1
Risks
- Defense: Colorado conceded 1.0 goal per game at home in the league this season
- Form: Vancouver recorded 1 win in the last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 loss)
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids29%
Draw27%
Vancouver Whitecaps44%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw56%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw71%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.34 : 1.68, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-1-4-1 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 33 K. Thompson
- 6 R. Holding
- 24 N. Cobb
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 12 J. Atencio
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 7 M. Whittaker
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 25 R. Gauld
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 16 A. Harris
- 21 T. Ku-Dipietro
- 77 D. Yapi
- 99 J. Travis
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 32 D. Phillip
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 59 J. Badwal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 4 R. Veselinović
- 63 J. Selemani
- 23 A. Cvetković
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