Match report →
Sporting KC – Dallas1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.47
Total xG
3.08
Dallas
1.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.52 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Stephen Afrifa on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Petar Musa on the bench (22 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Shaq Moore not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bernard Kamungo on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Patrickson Delgado on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Christian Cappis on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Dallas is 2nd in the league with 54 points from 32 games, Sporting KC is 15th with 22 points
- Form: Sporting KC is winless in their last 5 games with 4 losses, Dallas won 2
- Head-to-head: Dallas won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two teams, Sporting KC won 1
Risks
- Days between games: Dallas enters the match with 2 days since their last game
- Defense: Dallas concedes 1.69 goals per game away from home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC34%
Draw27%
Dallas39%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw61%
Dallas or draw66%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.47 : 1.60, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SJ Earthquakes: 3 goals (82', 88', 90+4')
- Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting KC: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (15 points lost)
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Sporting KC: 68% of all goals in the first half (13 of 19, last 12 games)
- Dallas with Ramiro starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (23/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Dallas 3-4-2-1
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 15 J. Miller
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 33 O. Wolff
- 7 O. Capemba
- 19 T. Calheira
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
Dallas
- 40 J. Sirois
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 14 H. Johansson
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 7 D. Job
- 10 S. Moreno
Substitutes
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 14 C. Harris
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 42 A. Cunningham
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 9 P. Musa
- 11 A. Julio Santos
- 12 C. Cappis
- 28 S. Sarver
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 27 C. Swann
- 22 A. de Brito Augusto
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