Match report →
DC United – Cincinnati0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.35
Total xG
3.40
Cincinnati
2.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +1.14 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Tyrell Malacia not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Cincinnati sits 8th in the league with 39 points from 30 games, DC United is 13th with 33 points
- Home/Away: DC United concedes 1.73 goals per game at home in the league this season, while Cincinnati scores 1.6 away
- Form: DC United conceded 2.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches, recording 3 losses, 1 win and 1 draw
Risks
- Away: Cincinnati concedes 2.73 goals per game away in the league this season
- Rest days: Cincinnati with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
DC United24%
Draw24%
Cincinnati53%
Double chance
DC United or draw47%
Cincinnati or draw76%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.35 : 2.06, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
0:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- DC United: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Kévin Denkey: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
DC United 4-4-2 · Cincinnati 3-5-2
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 2 K. Nono
- 23 B. Servania
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 9 T. Baribo
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 24 K. Smith
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 23 D. Douděra
- 20 P. Bucha
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 16 T. Barlow
- 9 A. Denkey
Substitutes
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 12 W. Antley
- 13 S. Nealis
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 40 K. Reynoso
- 11 S. Gidi
- 2 A. Powell
- 13 E. Louro
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 27 B. Anunga
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 88 A. Chirila
- 70 J. Martínez Torres
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