Match report →
Real Salt Lake – St. Louis City3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Real Salt Lake
1.73
Total xG
3.12
St. Louis City
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Salt Lake | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Rising form (3.5 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.47 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| D. Luna not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Tomas Totland not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Carlo Holse on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ethan Edelman on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alexandru Mățan not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Real Salt Lake scores 1.87 goals per match at home in the league this season, St. Louis City concedes 1.47 away per match
- Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake has recorded 2 wins in 5 meetings against St. Louis City with 3 draws
Risks
- Table: St. Louis City is in 2nd place in the league this season with 51 points, Real Salt Lake is 10th with 36 points
- Attack: St. Louis City scored 2.8 goals per match in the last 5 matches, Real Salt Lake 1.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Real Salt Lake44%
Draw26%
St. Louis City30%
Double chance
Real Salt Lake or draw70%
St. Louis City or draw56%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.73 : 1.39, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- St. Louis City: 69% of all goals in the first half (22 of 32, last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Real Salt Lake: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Real Salt Lake 5-4-1 · St. Louis City 3-4-3
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
St. Louis City
- 39 B. Lundt
- 99 J. Orozco
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 27 F. Fol
- 6 C. Wallem
- 18 C. Brunet
- 8 C. Durkin
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 11 S. Becher
Substitutes
- 23 C. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 15 J. Glad
- 19 A. Piol
- 29 S. Junqua
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 98 A. Katranis
- 28 D. Žagar
- 42 D. Downs
- 21 D. Polvara
- 19 C. Holse
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 24 D. Edelman
- 59 M. Joyner
- 77 S. Jeong
- 4 M. Fall
- 31 C. Olivares
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