Match report →
Atlanta United – Chicago Fire2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlanta United
1.63
Total xG
3.12
Chicago Fire
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlanta United | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Tristan Muyumba on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jack Elliott not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Atlanta United concede 1.93 goals per game at home in the league, Chicago Fire score 1.6 per game away
- Form: Atlanta United scored 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Chicago Fire 1.4 per game
Risks
- Table: Chicago Fire are 4th in the league with 48 points, Atlanta United are 14th with 30 points
- Season: Chicago Fire won 14 of 30 matches in the league this season, Atlanta United won 8 of 30
All probabilities
Result
Atlanta United40%
Draw27%
Chicago Fire34%
Double chance
Atlanta United or draw66%
Chicago Fire or draw60%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.63 : 1.49, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlanta United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atlanta United 4-3-3 · Chicago Fire 4-3-3
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 35 A. Fortune
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 36 B. Embolo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 32 N. Allen
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 19 J. Bamba
Substitutes
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 7 S. Alzate
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 22 F. Picault
- 23 A. Mekvabishvili
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 29 D. Poręba
- 15 A. Gutman
- 18 J. Gomez
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