Match report →
Chicago Fire – Orlando City2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
2.02
Total xG
3.48
Orlando City
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.91 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Jonathan Bamba on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Eduard Atuesta not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Chicago Fire score 1.87 goals per home game in the league this season, Orlando City concede 3.33 per away game
- Table: Chicago Fire are 4th in the league with 51 points, while Orlando City sit 7th with 42 points
- Head-to-head: Chicago Fire have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Orlando City, with 1 defeat
Risks
- Attack: Orlando City have scored 2.8 goals per game over their last 5 matches
- Away: Orlando City score 1.87 goals per away game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire49%
Draw24%
Orlando City27%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw73%
Orlando City or draw51%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.02 : 1.46, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Iván Angulo: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (17/8 games, last 30)
- Chicago Fire: 37% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 19)
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-3-3 · Orlando City 4-4-2
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 3 J. Elliott
- 15 A. Gutman
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 23 A. Mekvabishvili
- 6 A. Salétros
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
- 22 J. Ellis
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 10 M. Ojeda
Substitutes
- 10 A. Russo Franco
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 19 J. Bamba
- 22 M. Pineda
- 24 R. Dean
- 44 J. Cohen
- 32 N. Allen
- 29 D. Poręba
- 18 J. Gomez
- 9 D. Dike
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 21 N. Miller
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →