Match report →
Philadelphia Union – New England1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
1.96
Total xG
3.40
New England
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | New England |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.55 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Cavan Sullivan on the bench (7 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Philadelphia Union recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, New England 3 wins and 2 losses
- Home/Away: Philadelphia Union scored 1.8 goals per game at home in the league, New England conceded 1.67 per game away
- Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union won 4 of the 5 meetings against New England, with 1 win for New England
Risks
- Table: New England is 3rd in the league after 30 matches with 52 points, Philadelphia Union is 6th with 46 points
- Defense: Philadelphia Union conceded 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union48%
Draw24%
New England27%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw73%
New England or draw52%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.96 : 1.44, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Philadelphia Union: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New England: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Philadelphia Union: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (13 of 36)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · New England 4-3-3
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 12 I. Feingold
- 22 E. Kohler
- 66 J. Wynder
- 25 P. Miller
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 8 M. Polster
- 14 J. Yueill
- 41 L. Langoni
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 16 D. Gazdag
Substitutes
- 5 J. Sery
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 47 K. LeBlanc
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 21 B. Raines
- 23 W. Sands
- 33 D. Parisian
- 15 C. Baker
- 2 M. Fofana
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
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