Match report →
Nashville SC – New York RB3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Nashville SC
2.42
Total xG
3.57
New York RB
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nashville SC | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −1.02 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.46 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.00 | |
| Ronald Donkor not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Mohammed Sofo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Nashville SC score 2.81 goals per game at home in the league this season, New York RB concede 1.88 per game away
- Table: Nashville SC rank 1st in the league with 71 points, New York RB sit 10th with 39 points
- Form: Nashville SC were unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, New York RB suffered 3 defeats
Risks
- Attack: New York RB generated 2.63 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.8 goals per game
- Rest days: Nashville SC with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Nashville SC64%
Draw20%
New York RB16%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw84%
New York RB or draw36%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.42 : 1.15, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
2:2
5%
4:1
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 10 of 10 games (100%)
- New York RB: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Nashville SC: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Austin: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- New York RB: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Lineups
Nashville SC 4-4-2 · New York RB 4-3-3
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 11 E. Saad
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 9 S. Surridge
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 26 T. Parker
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 59 D. Padelford
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 60 S. Kone
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 17 C. Harper
Substitutes
- 1 J. Willis
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 19 A. Muyl
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 22 J. Bauer
- 37 A. Qasem
- 41 W. Madrigal Molina
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 8 D. Ruiz Montero
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 79 R. Mosquera
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 37 M. Sofo
- 1 A. Marcucci
- 91 M. Jiménez Murillo
- 45 C. Faello
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