Match report →
Charlotte – Orlando City4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Charlotte
1.91
Total xG
3.39
Orlando City
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlotte | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.90 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| David Schnegg on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Rodolfo Aloko on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Eduard Atuesta on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| David Brekalo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Charlotte concedes 1 goal per match at home in the league this season, Orlando City concedes 3.25 away
- Table: Charlotte is 5th in the league with 50 points, Orlando City is 7th with 43 points
- Attack: Orlando City scored 2.8 goals per match in the last 5 matches, Charlotte scored 2.4
Risks
- Head-to-head: Orlando City won 2 of the 5 meetings against Charlotte, with 3 draws and 0 wins for Charlotte
- Form: Orlando City remained undefeated in the last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws
All probabilities
Result
Charlotte46%
Draw25%
Orlando City29%
Double chance
Charlotte or draw71%
Orlando City or draw54%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.90 : 1.48, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Charlotte: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Iván Angulo: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Charlotte: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 24)
- Orlando City with Antoine Griezmann starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (16/14 games, last 30)
Lineups
Charlotte 4-2-3-1 · Orlando City 4-4-2
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 11 L. Abada
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 10 M. Ojeda
Substitutes
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 6 A. Doucouré
- 4 A. Privett
- 13 B. Bronico
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 25 T. Smalls
- 37 R. Aloko
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 71 N. Richmond
- 9 D. Dike
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 21 N. Miller
- 22 J. Ellis
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 35 J. Gerbet
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