Match report →
SJ Earthquakes – Real Salt Lake2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
SJ Earthquakes
1.51
Total xG
3.03
Real Salt Lake
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SJ Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Timo Werner not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Beau Leroux on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Jack Jasinski on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Eduard Löwen on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Morgan Guilavogui not in squad (5 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Goals: SJ Earthquakes average 1.69 goals per match in the league this season, Real Salt Lake 1.56 goals per match
- Head-to-head: Across the last 5 meetings, both teams recorded 2 wins each alongside 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Real Salt Lake won 3 of their last 5 matches, while SJ Earthquakes went winless in their last 5 matches
- Rest days: SJ Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake with 2 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
SJ Earthquakes36%
Draw27%
Real Salt Lake37%
Double chance
SJ Earthquakes or draw63%
Real Salt Lake or draw64%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.51 : 1.52, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SJ Earthquakes: 8 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 38% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 16)
- Real Salt Lake: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
- SJ Earthquakes: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
SJ Earthquakes 3-1-4-2 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
SJ Earthquakes
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 6 I. Harkes
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 19 P. Judd
- 7 O. Bouda
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
- 15 J. Glad
- 26 P. Quinton
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 29 S. Junqua
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
Substitutes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 16 J. Skahan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 25 M. Floriani
- 23 E. Löwen
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 9 L. Jovanovic
- 4 L. Engel
- 23 C. Booth
- 18 T. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 19 A. Piol
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 98 A. Katranis
- 3 K. Henry
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