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St. Louis City – Portland Timbers2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.88
Total xG
3.25
Portland Timbers
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Alexandru Mățan not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Vincent Janssen on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: St. Louis City scores 2.27 goals per game at home in the league, Portland Timbers concedes 2.07 per game away
- Table: St. Louis City is 3rd with 51 points from 31 games, Portland Timbers is 11th with 37 points
Risks
- xG: St. Louis City scored 2.2 goals per game in 5 games with xG data, but created only 1.37 xG per game
- Shots: Portland Timbers averaged 6.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, St. Louis City 5.2 per game
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City48%
Draw25%
Portland Timbers27%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw73%
Portland Timbers or draw52%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.88 : 1.37, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- St. Louis City: 69% of all goals in the first half (20 of 29, last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/5 games, last 30)
- St. Louis City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-1-2 · Portland Timbers 4-3-3
St. Louis City
- 39 B. Lundt
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 8 C. Durkin
- 24 D. Edelman
- 14 T. Totland
- 19 C. Holse
- 42 D. Downs
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 2 J. Waterman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 17 C. Bassett
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 99 K. Velde
Substitutes
- 11 S. Becher
- 28 M. Perez
- 77 S. Jeong
- 99 J. Orozco
- 4 M. Fall
- 27 F. Fol
- 18 C. Brunet
- 31 C. Olivares
- 48 R. Lynch
- 15 E. Miller
- 20 F. Surman
- 23 I. Smith
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 73 E. Izoita
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 14 V. Janssen
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