Match report →
Minnesota United – Sporting KC3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
2.29
Total xG
3.49
Sporting KC
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | Sporting KC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Tomás Chancalay on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Wil Trapp not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Calvin Harris on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) |
Key factors
- Away: Sporting KC concede 2.87 goals per match away in the league this season, Minnesota United concede 1.33 at home
- Form: Sporting KC are winless in their last 5 matches with 4 losses, while Minnesota United recorded 1 win and 3 draws
- Table: Minnesota United sit 13th in the league with 35 points, while Sporting KC are 15th with 22 points
Risks
- Home: Minnesota United score 1.27 goals per match at home in the league this season, compared to 1.75 away
- Head-to-head: Sporting KC won the last meeting in July 2026 with a 2-1 scoreline
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United60%
Draw22%
Sporting KC18%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw82%
Sporting KC or draw40%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.28 : 1.21, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
9%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/8 games, last 30)
- Sporting KC: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
Lineups
Minnesota United 4-4-2 · Sporting KC 4-4-2
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 23 M. Duggan
- 13 A. Markanich
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 25 N. Triantis
- 30 O. Géne
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 16 A. Jackson
- 9 K. Yeboah
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 15 J. Miller
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 7 O. Capemba
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Substitutes
- 11 M. Malone
- 1 A. Smir
- 3 K. Duncan
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 15 M. Boxall
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 14 C. Harris
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 33 O. Wolff
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