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Cincinnati – Philadelphia Union1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
2.04
Total xG
3.59
Philadelphia Union
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Evander on the bench (14 goals, 12 assists) | ||
| Tyrell Malacia not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Milan Iloski not in squad (19 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Cavan Sullivan on the bench (7 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Danley Jean Jacques not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 72% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Cincinnati score 2.53 goals per home match in the league, Philadelphia Union concede 2 per away match
- Attack: Philadelphia Union score 2.12 goals per away match in the league, Cincinnati concede 2 per home match
Risks
- Table: Philadelphia Union are 6th in the league with 47 points, Cincinnati 8th with 43 points
- Rest days: Cincinnati with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati48%
Draw24%
Philadelphia Union28%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw72%
Philadelphia Union or draw52%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.04 : 1.55, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Philadelphia Union: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Cincinnati: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Inter Miami: 2 goals (80', 86')
- Philadelphia Union: 34% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (11 of 32)
- Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-1-4-2 · Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 24 K. Smith
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 20 P. Bucha
- 11 S. Gidi
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 16 T. Barlow
- 9 A. Denkey
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 4 J. Lukić
- 16 B. Bender
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 9 B. Damiani
Substitutes
- 23 D. Douděra
- 2 A. Powell
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 13 E. Louro
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 27 B. Anunga
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 88 A. Chirila
- 70 J. Martínez Torres
- 19 S. Chirila
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 28 A. Anello
- 66 F. Sundstrom
- 76 A. Rick
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 68 J. Griffin
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