Major League Soccer
New York City - Columbus Crew
05/10/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.0
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
New York City
Columbus Crew
League
The Lab
- 1Columbus Crew: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Columbus Crew: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 3Columbus Crew with Andrés Herrera: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 4.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
27%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Columbus Crew is slightly favored with a 40% win probability and 1.57 predicted goals
- Current Form: New York City's recent form (LLDLL) is worse than Columbus Crew's (DLWWL)
- Head-to-Head: Columbus Crew has a historical edge with 2 wins in 4 direct encounters
Risk Factors
- Player Absence: W. Abou Ali is sidelined for Columbus Crew, accounting for 31% of the team's season goals (63% of goal threat available)
- Goal Production: New York City's recent goal production has dropped to an average of 1.0 goals per game, compared to a season average of 1.7
Overview
New York City (10th place, 12 points) hosts Columbus Crew (11th place, 12 points) in a Major League Soccer fixture. The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 4:30 PM. Both teams are level on points in the mid-table, aiming to distance themselves from the relegation zone and keep pace with the top ranks.
Form
New York City displays poor form with LLDLL from their last five matches, comprising 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. Columbus Crew shows slightly better form with DLWWL in their last five games, including 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. New York City's current form is sharply declining with two consecutive losses, while Columbus Crew recorded two wins before their last loss.
Statistics
New York City scores an average of 1.73 goals and concedes 1.64 goals per game this season. At home, the average is 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded. The team has kept 1 clean sheet. Both teams scored in 7 matches, and 6 matches had over 2.5 goals. Columbus Crew averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per game. Away, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. They have kept 2 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 8 matches, and 7 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In a total of 4 head-to-head matches, New York City has achieved 1 win, while Columbus Crew secured 2 wins, and 1 match ended in a draw. The goal difference is 7:9 in favor of Columbus Crew. The last encounter was won by New York City 3-2 on September 17, 2025. However, Columbus Crew has been more dominant in recent direct duels.
Key Players
For New York City, Nicolás Fernández Mercau (8 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.91), Maxi Moralez (1 goal, 6 assists, avg rating 7.37), and Agustín Ojeda (3 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 6.83) are key players. Nicolás Fernández Mercau scored 3 goals in his last 5 games. For Columbus Crew, Max Arfsten (3 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.27), Taha Habroune (1 goal, 2 assists, avg rating 7.13), and Diego Rossi (4 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.01) stand out. Max Arfsten recorded 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games, while Diego Rossi scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist.
Goalkeepers
New York City's goalkeeper Matt Freese has recorded 1 clean sheet this season. Columbus Crew's goalkeeper Patrick Schulte has achieved this in 2 matches.
Influences
New York City demonstrates home strength with an average of 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded in home games. Columbus Crew scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per away game.