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Nashville SC – New York City2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nashville SC
1.71
Total xG
2.91
New York City
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nashville SC | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Andy Nájar not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Maxi Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Hannes Wolf on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Keaton Parks on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Nashville SC's strong home record, averaging 2.33 goals scored, and good form (WDDWW) speak in their favor
- New York City's goal production is currently stalling (1.0) compared to their season average (1.7)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Nashville SC with 48% probability
Risks
- New York City has only 64% of their usual goal threat available without Maxi Moralez, Hannes Wolf, and Keaton Parks
- New York City concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Nashville SC48%
Draw27%
New York City25%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw75%
New York City or draw52%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- New York City with Arnau Farnós: 8.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Nashville SC: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Nashville SC: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 · New York City 4-2-3-1
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 41 W. Madrigal Molina
- 37 A. Qasem
- 10 H. Mukhtar
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 5 K. Trewin
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 87 A. Farnós Olive
- 88 M. Jones
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
Substitutes
- 1 J. Willis
- 5 J. Maher
- 9 S. Surridge
- 17 W. Pacius
- 19 A. Muyl
- 22 J. Bauer
- 23 J. Knight
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 12 C. Brunet
- 17 H. Wolf
- 19 S. Tanasijević
- 29 M. Carrizo Ballesteros
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 99 S. Garfield-Reid
- 45 K. Acito
- 15 K. Pierre Jr.
- 71 P. Molinari
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