Major League Soccer
Nashville SC - New York City
05/24/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.9
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Nashville SC
New York City
League
The Lab
- 1Nashville SC: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2New York City with Arnau Farnós: 8.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Nashville SC: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Nashville SC: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
27%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Nashville SC's strong home record, averaging 2.33 goals scored, and good form (WDDWW) speak in their favor
- New York City's goal production is currently stalling (1.0) compared to their season average (1.7)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Nashville SC with 48% probability
Risk Factors
- New York City has only 64% of their usual goal threat available without Maxi Moralez, Hannes Wolf, and Keaton Parks
- New York City concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
Overview
Nashville SC (1st place, 30 points) hosts New York City (5th place, 19 points) in Major League Soccer
The match takes place on May 24, 2026, 12:30 AM
Nashville SC aims to maintain their league lead, while New York City seeks to climb the table
Form
Nashville SC is in good form with WDDWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches across all competitions
Recent results include a 3-2 win against Los Angeles FC and a 3-0 win against New England
New York City's form is mixed, recorded as LLWWD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
They recently drew 1-1 against New York RB and secured a 1-0 win against Charlotte
Statistics
Nashville SC has averaged 2.23 goals scored and 0.77 goals conceded this season
At home, the team averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded per game
New York City averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded
Away from home, their average is 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded
Nashville SC has a better defensive record with 6 clean sheets compared to New York City's 3 clean sheets
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 of Nashville SC's games and 7 of New York City's games
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Nashville SC has 1 win, New York City has 2 wins, and there has been 1 draw
Nashville SC scored 5 goals, while New York City scored 7 goals
The last encounter on August 17, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for New York City
New York City has been more dominant in recent head-to-head clashes
Key Players
Hany Mukhtar of Nashville SC scored 6 goals and 4 assists this season with an average rating of 7.27
He contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances with a stable form trend
Cristian Espinoza added 3 goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.39
He recorded 3 assists in his last 5 matches
Warren Madrigal scored 5 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.16 and a rising form trend
For New York City, Nicolás Fernández Mercau stands out with 9 goals and 3 assists and a rating of 7.88
He recorded 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games
Agustín Ojeda contributed 3 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.9
Andrés Perea scored 1 goal in 4 appearances with a rating of 6.85 and a stable form trend
Goalkeepers
Brian Schwake (Nashville SC) has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Matt Freese (New York City) has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Nashville SC holds a significant home advantage
The team averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded per home game