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Sporting KC – New York RB1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.32
Total xG
3.44
New York RB
2.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.72 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.71 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.71 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Manu García on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Emil Forsberg on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for New York RB with 55% probability
- New York RB is expected to score 2.12 goals and faces a Sporting KC defense that concedes an average of 2.62 goals per game this season
- Both teams are counter-oriented in their tactical approaches, Sporting KC averages 5.2 shots on target and New York RB 4.2 shots on target
Risks
- New York RB's away defense shows weaknesses, with an average of 2.83 goals conceded per away game
- Sporting KC exhibits a positive offensive trend (1.2 recent goals vs. 1.0 season average), which could challenge the away favoritism
- The single head-to-head match between these teams resulted in a draw, offering no strong historical precedent for an away victory
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC22%
Draw23%
New York RB55%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw45%
New York RB or draw78%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:2
7%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Sporting KC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- New York RB: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · New York RB 4-3-3
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 2 I. James
- 28 W. Meyer
- 99 J. Reid
- 7 O. Capemba
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 11 C. Harris
- 19 T. Calheira
- 9 D. Joveljić
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 2 J. Che
- 12 D. Nealis
- 5 O. Valencia Arauz
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 4 G. Berggren
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Substitutes
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 6 M. García Alonso
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 14 M. Tschantret
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 57 D. Borges da Silva
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 70 A. Rojas Maroto
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 79 R. Mosquera
- 26 T. Parker
- 37 M. Sofo
- 33 R. Mitchell
- 39 N. Benedetti
- 17 C. Harper
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
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