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Major League Soccer

Atlanta United - New England

04/22/2026, 11:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlanta United
1.3
Total xG
2.6
New England
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AUNE

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.92
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.44
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.13
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Emmanuel Latte Lath on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Miguel AlmirĂłn not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 40% available)
Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.9 goals/match)

New England

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.03
Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
+0.00
Brayan Ceballos not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England with Peyton Miller: 7.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Atlanta United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    New England: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 4
    Atlanta United with MatĂ­as Galarza Fonda: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

30%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Atlanta United's offensive strength is significantly reduced, with only 41% of usual starting XI goal threat available
  • New England shows strong current form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close outcome with a 37% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Atlanta United only scores an average of 0.75 home goals per game
  • New England conceded an average of 8.0 goals in their single away game of the season
Overview

Atlanta United host New England in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 22, 2026, 11:45 PM. Atlanta United are in 14th place with 4 points. New England are in 5th place with 12 points. It's a clash between a team in the bottom third of the table and a team from the upper half of the league

Form

Atlanta United's form across all competitions is WLDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games. They recently suffered 3 consecutive losses. New England's form is WLWWW. They secured 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. New England enters this game with 3 consecutive wins

Statistics

Atlanta United averages 0.75 goals scored per game and concedes 1.75 goals. Currently, Atlanta United scores more frequently (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals). At home, they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded. The team kept 1 clean sheet. New England boasts a season average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded. Currently, New England scores more frequently (2.6 goals) than their season average (2.0 goals). In their only away game, they scored 2.0 goals and conceded 8.0 goals. New England recorded 2 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, Atlanta United won 1 and New England won 3. The overall goal difference stands at 5:6 in favor of New England. New England won the last encounter on September 27, 2025, with a 2-0 score. New England has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

Aleksey Miranchuk (Midfielder) has scored 4 goals this season and has an average rating of 7.16. MatĂ­as Galarza Fonda (Midfielder) has a season rating of 7.02. Enea Mihaj (Defender) has a season rating of 6.69. Luca Langoni (Attacker) for New England has 1 goal and 6 assists with a rating of 7.10. Dor Turgeman (Attacker) has 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.94. Alhassan Yusuf (Midfielder) scored 2 goals and has a rating of 7.05. Not nominated: Brayan Ceballos (2G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Lucas Hoyos, Atlanta United's goalkeeper, recorded 1 clean sheet this season. Matt Turner, New England's goalkeeper, kept 2 clean sheets this season

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