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Major League Soccer

Dallas - LA Galaxy

04/19/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.5
Total xG
2.8
LA Galaxy
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DALLG

Dallas

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.64
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

LA Galaxy

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.37
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.24
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Marco Reus on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 2
    LA Galaxy with Matheus Nascimento: 7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.6 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    LA Galaxy: scored only after the break in 3 of 7 games

  • 4
    Dallas: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 5
    LA Galaxy: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Dallas' Home Strength: An average of 2.2 goals per home game meets LA Galaxy's away weakness of 2.0 goals conceded
  • Current Form: Dallas shows more stable form with 2 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games compared to LA Galaxy
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 39% probability of a home win for Dallas
Risk Factors
  • LA Galaxy concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
Overview

Dallas (7th place, 12 points) host LA Galaxy (10th place, 8 points) in Major League Soccer. The match will take place on April 19, 2026, at 1:30 AM. Dallas is in the upper mid-table, while LA Galaxy is aiming for a playoff spot.

Form

Dallas shows a form of LDWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions. This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches, with the last game being a draw. LA Galaxy has a form of LLDLW across all competitions. This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games, with the last game being a win.

Statistics

Dallas averages 2.14 goals scored per game and concedes 1.43 goals. At home, they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of 7 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches. LA Galaxy averages 1.43 goals scored and concedes 1.57 goals per game. Away from home, they score 1.33 goals and concede an average of 2.0 goals. In LA Galaxy's matches, both teams scored in 6 of 7 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Dallas secured 2 wins and LA Galaxy also has 2 wins, with no draws. The goal difference is even at 6:6. The last encounter on October 12, 2025, ended 2:1 for Dallas, who won the away game. Recent direct duels show a balanced record between the teams.

Key Players

Petar Musa is a key attacker for Dallas with 7 goals and 1 assist in 7 appearances. Logan Farrington scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 matches. Defender Osaze Urhoghide contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 games. For LA Galaxy, João Klauss is the top scorer with 5 goals in 7 games. Gabriel Pec provided 2 assists in 6 appearances. Maya Yoshida contributed 1 goal in 6 games. Not selected: Marco Reus (2G/3A).

Goalkeepers

Dallas' goalkeeper Michael Collodi kept 2 clean sheets this season. For LA Galaxy, J. Marcinkowski kept 1 clean sheet in a season game.

Influences

Dallas shows a stronger offensive performance at home with an average of 2.2 home goals per game. LA Galaxy concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game.

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