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Major League Soccer

Sporting KC - Houston Dynamo

08/02/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Sporting KC
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Houston Dynamo
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SKHD

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.88
Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.70
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.10
Manu GarcĆ­a on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)

Houston Dynamo

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Mateusz Bogusz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting KC: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Houston Dynamo with AgustĆ­n Bouzat: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sporting KC with Shapi Suleymanov: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

30%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Balanced goal expectation: The model predicts a slight advantage for the away side with 1.33 expected goals compared to 1.20 for the hosts
  • Offensive form trends: Sporting KC is currently scoring more frequently at 1.4 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.1
  • Squad impact: Sporting KC is missing key midfielder Manu GarcĆ­a (2 goals, 4 assists) from the starting lineup, reducing their offensive power
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability of Sporting KC: The hosts concede an average of 2.59 goals per game and have kept zero home clean sheets
  • Houston's away struggles: Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game
  • Limited data on weather conditions
Overview

Sporting KC hosts Houston Dynamo at Children's Mercy Park

Major League Soccer match on August 2, 2026, 12:30 AM

Sporting KC is currently in 15th place with 14 points

Houston Dynamo travels to this fixture in 6th place with 26 points

Houston enters the match as slight favorites

Form

Sporting KC form: WLLWL

Their most recent match ended in a 0-4 defeat away to Los Angeles FC

Sporting KC recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches

Houston Dynamo form: LWDDW

Their most recent match was a 3-0 home win against Austin

Houston Dynamo recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting KC scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 2.59 goals per game this season

At home, the host scores an average of 1.1 goals and concedes 1.5 goals

Houston Dynamo scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.5 goals per game

Away from home, Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.12 goals and scores 1.38 goals

Sporting KC has kept zero clean sheets in their home matches this season

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sporting KC has 1 win, Houston Dynamo has 1 win, and there were 2 draws

The goal difference in these matches is 5-4 in favor of Sporting KC

The last meeting on October 19, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

The recent direct record between the teams is perfectly even

Key Players

Dejan Joveljić plays in attack for Sporting KC and has scored 8 goals and 1 assist in 17 appearances

Calvin Harris recorded 2 goals and 3 assists in 17 matches for the home team

Guilherme is Houston's top attacker with 9 goals and 5 assists in 16 appearances

Goalkeepers

Stefan Cleveland played 8 matches for Sporting KC this season and has kept zero clean sheets

Jonathan Bond played 16 matches for Houston Dynamo and kept 5 clean sheets

Influences

Children's Mercy Park features a natural grass surface

An average of 3.2 goals are scored per match at this stadium

Both teams scored in all 5 home matches evaluated at this venue, representing a 100% BTTS rate

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