Match report →
Sporting KC – Houston Dynamo0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.20
Total xG
2.53
Houston Dynamo
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.88 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.70 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Manu García on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Mateusz Bogusz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced goal expectation: The model predicts a slight advantage for the away side with 1.33 expected goals compared to 1.20 for the hosts
- Offensive form trends: Sporting KC is currently scoring more frequently at 1.4 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.1
- Squad impact: Sporting KC is missing key midfielder Manu García (2 goals, 4 assists) from the starting lineup, reducing their offensive power
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability of Sporting KC: The hosts concede an average of 2.59 goals per game and have kept zero home clean sheets
- Houston's away struggles: Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game
- Limited data on weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC32%
Draw30%
Houston Dynamo38%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw62%
Houston Dynamo or draw68%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Houston Dynamo with Agustín Bouzat: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Sporting KC with Shapi Suleymanov: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-2-3-1 · Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 3 M. Castillo Mosquera
- 5 O. Blorian
- 18 E. Karic
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 7 O. Capemba
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 11 C. Harris
- 9 D. Joveljić
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 11 L. Ennali
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 8 J. McGlynn
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 10 E. Ponce Martínez
Substitutes
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 6 M. García Alonso
- 15 J. Miller
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 28 W. Meyer
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 23 D. McGuire
- 9 O. Lingr
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 21 F. Negri
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 28 E. Sviatchenko
- 24 I. Aliyu
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