Match report →
Vancouver Whitecaps – St. Louis City1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.79
Total xG
2.73
St. Louis City
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vancouver Whitecaps | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.93 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Brian White on the bench (13 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Oliver Larraz on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Édier Ocampo not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ryan Gauld on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Eduard Löwen not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) |
Key factors
- Home turf advantage: Vancouver is dominant on artificial turf with 7 wins out of 10 matches
- Mathematical dominance: The model calculates a 56% probability for a home win
- Tactical metrics: Vancouver averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Absence of Brian White with 13 season goals weakens the hosts' attack
- St. Louis City concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
Vancouver Whitecaps56%
Draw26%
St. Louis City18%
Double chance
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw82%
St. Louis City or draw44%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- St. Louis City: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1 · St. Louis City 3-4-3
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 59 J. Badwal
- 20 A. Cubas
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 13 T. Müller
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 19 R. Elloumi
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 8 C. Durkin
- 6 C. Wallem
- 24 D. Edelman
- 23 A. Măţan
- 14 T. Totland
- 19 C. Holse
- 11 S. Becher
Substitutes
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 8 O. Larraz
- 24 B. White
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 3 S. Adekugbe
- 25 R. Gauld
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 42 D. Downs
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 59 M. Joyner
- 77 S. Jeong
- 4 M. Fall
- 27 F. Fol
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