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Major League Soccer

Vancouver Whitecaps - St. Louis City

09/06/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.8
Total xG
2.7
St. Louis City
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VWSLC

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.93
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Brian White on the bench (13 goals, 2 assists)
Oliver Larraz on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Édier Ocampo not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ryan Gauld on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

St. Louis City

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Eduard Löwen not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)

  • 2
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 3
    St. Louis City: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

26%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Home turf advantage: Vancouver is dominant on artificial turf with 7 wins out of 10 matches
  • Mathematical dominance: The model calculates a 56% probability for a home win
  • Tactical metrics: Vancouver averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Absence of Brian White with 13 season goals weakens the hosts' attack
  • St. Louis City concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game this season
Overview

Vancouver Whitecaps (1st place, 43 points) host St. Louis City (6th place, 34 points) at BC Place Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 6, 2026, 2:30 AM

Top clash in the league with a clear favorite role for the hosts

Form

Form-string Vancouver Whitecaps: DWLWW

Form-string St. Louis City: DWDWD

The hosts recently secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

St. Louis City travels with 2 wins and 3 draws

Both teams show stable form heading into this match

Statistics

Vancouver Whitecaps scores avg 2.29 goals per game and concedes 0.86 goals

St. Louis City records an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.36 conceded

The hosts kept 9 clean sheets this season

At home, Vancouver conceded only 6 goals in 12 matches

Away team defensively vulnerable with an average of 2.0 goals conceded per away game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Vancouver Whitecaps with 3 wins, St. Louis City with 0 wins and 1 draw

Goal ratio of 11:6 in favor of the hosts

The last encounter ended 3:2 for Vancouver Whitecaps on August 24, 2025

Key Players

Thomas Müller with 7 goals and 4 assists

Emmanuel Sabbi contributes 3 goals and 3 assists

Bruno Caicedo with 3 goals and 3 assists

Not nominated: Brian White (13 goals, 2 assists), Oliver Larraz (0 goals, 3 assists), Édier Ocampo (2 goals, 1 assist), Ryan Gauld (2 goals, 0 assists)

Simon Becher with 6 goals and 4 assists

Daniel Ethan Edelman with 3 goals and 2 assists

Dante Polvara with 1 goal and a rating of 6.97

Not nominated: Eduard Löwen (3 goals, 2 assists), Sang-bin Jeong (2 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Yohei Takaoka plays in goal for Vancouver Whitecaps and kept 9 clean sheets

Roman Bürki guards the goal for St. Louis City and recorded 3 clean sheets

Both keepers aim to bring stability to their defensive lines

Influences

Strong home advantage for Vancouver on artificial turf with a record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

St. Louis City lost their only game on artificial turf this season 1:4

BC Place Stadium features an average of 2.0 goals per game

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