Match report →
Orlando City – San Diego1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Orlando City
1.36
Total xG
2.58
San Diego
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Orlando City | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.72 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (2.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.62 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 20% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Marcus Ingvartsen not in squad (11 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- San Diego averages 1.82 goals scored per match but concedes an average of 2.83 goals away from home
- Orlando City recently dominated possession, averaging 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target per match
- The mathematical model predicts a close game with a 38% probability for a home win compared to 32% for the visitors
Risks
- San Diego concedes a weak average of 2.83 goals per away match
- Key player Marcus Ingvartsen is missing from San Diego's squad
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history
All probabilities
Result
Orlando City38%
Draw30%
San Diego32%
Double chance
Orlando City or draw68%
San Diego or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/7 games, last 22)
Lineups
Orlando City 4-4-2 · San Diego 4-3-3
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
- 22 J. Ellis
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 9 D. Dike
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 26 M. Duah
- 32 I. Murphy
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 20 A. Godoy
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 8 O. Valakari
- 99 M. Achouri
Substitutes
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 14 T. Spicer
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 18 D. Ferree
- 21 B. Duke
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 77 A. Mighten
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 19 D. Vazquez
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →