🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Orlando City - San Diego

09/05/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.4
Total xG
2.6
San Diego
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OCSD

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.72
Defensive strength (2.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.62
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.04
20% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

San Diego

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Marcus Ingvartsen not in squad (11 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/7 games, last 22)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

30%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • San Diego averages 1.82 goals scored per match but concedes an average of 2.83 goals away from home
  • Orlando City recently dominated possession, averaging 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target per match
  • The mathematical model predicts a close game with a 38% probability for a home win compared to 32% for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • San Diego concedes a weak average of 2.83 goals per away match
  • Key player Marcus Ingvartsen is missing from San Diego's squad
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history
Overview

Orlando City (11th place, 25 points) host San Diego (8th place, 30 points) at the Inter&Co Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 5, 2026, 11:30 PM

An important clash in the middle of the standings

Form

Orlando City form: LDLWD

Last match ended in a draw

San Diego form: DWLWW

Recently secured two consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Orlando City scores an average of 1.68 goals and concedes 2.45 per match

At home, the team scores 1.73 goals per game

San Diego averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match

Away from home, San Diego concedes 2.83 goals on average

Key Players

Antoine Griezmann has scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists this season

Justin Ellis has already registered 6 assists

David Brekalo has scored 2 goals so far

Anders Dreyer leads his team with 8 goals and 10 assists

Onni Valakari has 4 goals and 3 assists

Gabriel Pirani has scored 2 goals

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau is in goal for Orlando City, completing 21 appearances this season

The home team recorded 2 clean sheets so far

CJ dos Santos guards the goal for San Diego with 9 appearances

The visitors kept 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage for Orlando City at the Inter&Co Stadium on natural grass

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches here

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.