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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Portland Timbers

04/19/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.7
Total xG
3.1
Portland Timbers
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MUPT

Minnesota United

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.71
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.47
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Full strength squad available

Portland Timbers

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Kevin Kelsy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Kelvin Yeboah: 3 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

26%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis shows a higher probability of 45% for a Minnesota United home win
  • Minnesota United's good current form with two wins in their last two matches
  • Portland Timbers' defensive vulnerability away from home with an average of 2.67 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
  • Minnesota United's season average of 1.86 goals conceded per game indicates defensive vulnerability
  • Portland Timbers has a weak away defense with an average of 2.67 goals conceded per away game
  • The pipeline analysis calculates a 62% probability for both teams to score
Overview

Minnesota United hosts Portland Timbers in a Major League Soccer match at Allianz Field on April 19, 2026, 2:30 AM

Minnesota United is in 9th place with 11 points, while Portland Timbers is in 12th place with 7 points

Both teams are in the middle of the table

Form

Minnesota United's form in all competitions is LLDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last result was a win

Portland Timbers' form is LLDLW

The Timbers recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

The last result was a win

Statistics

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.14 goals per game and concedes 1.86 goals

The team kept 2 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 4 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches

Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.57 goals per game and concedes 2.29 goals

The Timbers kept 0 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 6 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches

Minnesota United scored 1 goal and conceded 0 goals in their only home game

Portland Timbers conceded an average of 2.67 goals in 3 away games

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Minnesota United and Portland Timbers each have 1 win

2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is even at 6:6

The last head-to-head match ended in a 1:1 draw on August 31, 2025

Key Players

For Minnesota United, Kelvin Yeboah (4 season goals) and TomĂĄs Chancalay (3 season assists) stand out

JoaquĂ­n Pereyra also contributed 3 season assists

For Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde is an important attacking player with 3 season goals

Cole Bassett provided 2 season assists

Antony contributed 1 season goal and 1 season assist

Goalkeepers

Minnesota United's goalkeeper Drake Callender  had 7 season appearances with an average rating of 6.85

Minnesota United recorded 2 clean sheets

Portland Timbers' goalkeeper James Pantemis had 7 season appearances with an average rating of 6.99

Portland Timbers recorded 0 clean sheets

Influences

Minnesota United scored 1 goal and conceded none in their only home game

Portland Timbers concede an average of 2.67 goals per away game

The home team has shown a counter-attacking style in the last 5 games with an average of 40% possession

The visitors have averaged 46% possession in their last 5 games

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