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Major League Soccer08/30/2026, 08:30 PM

Columbus Crew – New England1 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Columbus Crew
1.23
Total xG
2.86
New England
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorColumbus CrewNew England
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)−0.75
High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)+0.69+0.69
Attack strength (1.37x league average)+0.34
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean−0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap)−0.14
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap)+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.07
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.03
DĂĄniel Gazdag not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Dylan Chambost on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 56% available)

Key factors

  • New England recently averaged 5.4 shots on target, whereas Columbus Crew averaged only 3.4 in their recent matches
  • The mathematical model favors the visitors, calculating a 45% probability for a New England victory
  • Columbus Crew enters this match on a negative run of three consecutive losses, while the visitors are much more solid in 5th place

Risks

  • DĂĄniel Gazdag and Dylan Chambost are missing, leaving the hosts with only 56% of their usual goal threat available
  • New England concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away match
  • The visitors' recent form trend is negative, with their goal production dropping to 1.4 goals recently

All probabilities

Result
Columbus Crew27%
Draw27%
New England45%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw55%
New England or draw73%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Columbus Crew: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  2. Columbus Crew: 41% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 17)
  3. Columbus Crew: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
  4. Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Lineups

Columbus Crew 4-4-2 · New England 4-1-4-1

Columbus Crew
  • 28 P. Schulte
  • 31 S. Moreira
  • 3 E. Bailly
  • 25 S. Zawadzki
  • 18 M. Amundsen
  • 23 M. Farsi
  • 50 T. Karumanchi
  • 20 A. Tavares Gomes
  • 16 T. Habroune
  • 10 B. MĂ©ndez Portela
  • 77 J. MartĂ­nez
New England
  • 30 M. Turner
  • 8 M. Polster
  • 22 E. Kohler
  • 2 M. Fofana
  • 23 W. Sands
  • 21 B. Raines
  • 11 J. Harrison
  • 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
  • 80 A. Yusuf
  • 25 P. Miller
  • 99 D. Turgeman
Substitutes
  • 1 N. Hagen Godoy
  • 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
  • 7 D. Chambost
  • 14 A. Sejdic
  • 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
  • 24 E. Bush
  • 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
  • 26 L. Giaccone
  • 11 B. Lennon
  • 73 J. Gunn
  • 4 T. Beason
  • 7 G. Yow
  • 12 I. Feingold
  • 14 J. Yueill
  • 15 C. Baker
  • 77 D. FagĂșndez Pepe
  • 27 W. Harris
  • 65 J. Siqueira

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