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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Philadelphia Union

05/13/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 3
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Philadelphia Union
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OCPU

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-1.19
Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.91
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.60
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.20
AdriĂĄn MarĂ­n on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Zakaria Taifi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Philadelphia Union

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.61
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.23
Rising form (1.3 vs 1 season average)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.06
11% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City with Robin Jansson : 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Philadelphia Union with JesĂșs Bueno: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Orlando City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Philadelphia Union has a higher win probability of 40% compared to Orlando City's 32%
  • Offensive Trend: Orlando City is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
  • Defensive Trend: Philadelphia Union has conceded more goals on average in recent games (2.33) than their season average (1.9)
Risk Factors
  • Philadelphia Union averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games (average)
  • The absence of regular goalkeeper Andre Blake (12 season appearances) for Philadelphia Union
Overview

Orlando City (14th place, 10 points) hosts Philadelphia Union (15th place, 6 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game takes place on May 13, 2026, 11:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, battling for crucial points.

Form

Orlando City's form in their last five matches is LWLWL, with two wins and three losses. Their last result was a loss. Philadelphia Union's form is DDLDL, with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, with their last result also being a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Orlando City has scored an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and conceded 2.83 goals per game. At home, they scored 1.29 goals and conceded 1.29 goals per home game. Philadelphia Union averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.4 goals per away game. Orlando City has kept 0 clean sheets this season, while Philadelphia Union has 2. Both teams scored in 7 of Orlando City's games and in 7 of Philadelphia Union's games. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 9 of Orlando City's matches and in 7 of Philadelphia Union's matches.

Head-to-Head

In four previous head-to-head encounters, the record is balanced. Orlando City secured two wins, Philadelphia Union one win, and one match ended in a draw. The goal difference stands at 7:7. The last meeting on April 5, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw.

Key Players

For Orlando City, midfielder MartĂ­n Ojeda stands out with 7 season goals and an average rating of 7.34, which increased to 7.75 in the last 5 games. Attacker Justin Ellis has 1 goal and 2 assists with a rating of 7.12. IvĂĄn Angulo, also in attack, provided 3 assists. For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski in attack is the top scorer with 2 goals and 1 assist. Midfielder Danley Jean Jacques scored 2 season goals. Defender Nathan Harriel contributed 1 goal and has a solid average rating of 7.00, increasing to 7.18 in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Orlando City's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, started in 5 of the last 5 matches. Orlando City has kept 0 clean sheets this season. For Philadelphia Union, Andrew Rick is expected to start, having made no season appearances so far. Regular goalkeeper Andre Blake is out due to injury. Philadelphia Union has recorded 2 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Orlando City showed a balanced performance in home games with an average of 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game. Philadelphia Union conceded an average of 1.4 goals per away game. No specific stadium or weather influences are available in the dataset.

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