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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Orlando City

04/12/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.9
Total xG
2.9
Orlando City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CCOC

Columbus Crew

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Full strength squad available

Orlando City

Defensive weakness (3.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+2.65
Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-0.61
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.61
+0.61
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

24%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Orlando City's Defensive Vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 3.83 goals per game.
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Columbus Crew with a 58% win probability.
  • Better Form for Columbus Crew: With 1 win and 2 draws in their last 5 games, their form is more stable than their opponent's.
Risk Factors
  • Orlando City's Attacking Weakness: The team scores an average of only 0.83 goals per game.
  • Columbus Crew's Conceding Record: The team concedes an average of 1.5 goals per game.
  • Draw Probability: The model predicts a 25% chance of a draw.
Overview

Columbus Crew (11th place, 5 points) host Orlando City (15th place, 3 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, seeking crucial points to improve their position. The mathematical analysis gives Columbus Crew a clear favorite role with a 58% win probability.

Form

Columbus Crew's last five games show a form of DDLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win and 2 draws, while suffering 2 losses. Their last match was a win.

Orlando City's form in their last five games is LLWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team secured 1 win but also suffered 4 losses. Their last match was a loss, and they have now recorded 2 consecutive losses.

Statistics

Columbus Crew averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game this season. The team kept 1 clean sheet, both teams scored in 4 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches. Columbus Crew failed to score in 2 games.

Orlando City averages 0.83 goals scored and a high 3.83 goals conceded per game this season. The team kept 0 clean sheets, both teams scored in 3 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 6 matches. Orlando City failed to score in 3 games. The pipeline analysis predicts 1.93 goals for Columbus Crew and 0.98 goals for Orlando City.

Head-to-Head

In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, Columbus Crew secured 2 wins, Orlando City 1 win, and there was 1 draw. Columbus Crew scored a total of 8 goals, while Orlando City scored 7 goals. The last encounter, on October 4, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. Recent head-to-head results indicate a slight dominance for the home team.

Key Players

For Columbus Crew, Wessam Abou Ali (5 goals, 1 assist, Ø 7.05 rating), Max Arfsten (1 goal, 2 assists, Ø 7.27 rating), and Diego Rossi (2 goals, 0 assists, Ø 6.78 rating) are key offensive players. Wessam Abou Ali shows a declining form with 2 goals in his last 4 games, while Max Arfsten and Diego Rossi also have slightly declining or stable forms.

For Orlando City, Martín Ojeda (2 goals, 0 assists, Ø 7.06 rating), Ivån Angulo (0 goals, 2 assists, Ø 6.74 rating), and Tiago (1 goal, 0 assists, Ø 6.70 rating) are noteworthy. Martín Ojeda shows stable form with 2 goals in 5 games, Ivån Angulo is also stable with 2 assists in 5 games, and Tiago shows stable form, scoring 1 goal in 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte (Columbus Crew) has played in 6 games this season, achieving an average rating of 6.75. His team recorded 1 clean sheet this season.

Maxime Crépeau (Orlando City) has played in 5 games and has an average rating of 6.14. His team has recorded 0 clean sheets this season. Maxime Crépeau shows a declining form.

Influences

The provided dataset does not list any specific venue statistics or weather influences.

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