Major League Soccer
Columbus Crew - Orlando City
04/12/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Columbus Crew
Orlando City
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
24%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Orlando City's Defensive Vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 3.83 goals per game.
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Columbus Crew with a 58% win probability.
- Better Form for Columbus Crew: With 1 win and 2 draws in their last 5 games, their form is more stable than their opponent's.
Risk Factors
- Orlando City's Attacking Weakness: The team scores an average of only 0.83 goals per game.
- Columbus Crew's Conceding Record: The team concedes an average of 1.5 goals per game.
- Draw Probability: The model predicts a 25% chance of a draw.
Overview
Columbus Crew (11th place, 5 points) host Orlando City (15th place, 3 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, seeking crucial points to improve their position. The mathematical analysis gives Columbus Crew a clear favorite role with a 58% win probability.
Form
Columbus Crew's last five games show a form of DDLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win and 2 draws, while suffering 2 losses. Their last match was a win.
Orlando City's form in their last five games is LLWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team secured 1 win but also suffered 4 losses. Their last match was a loss, and they have now recorded 2 consecutive losses.
Statistics
Columbus Crew averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game this season. The team kept 1 clean sheet, both teams scored in 4 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches. Columbus Crew failed to score in 2 games.
Orlando City averages 0.83 goals scored and a high 3.83 goals conceded per game this season. The team kept 0 clean sheets, both teams scored in 3 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 6 matches. Orlando City failed to score in 3 games. The pipeline analysis predicts 1.93 goals for Columbus Crew and 0.98 goals for Orlando City.
Head-to-Head
In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, Columbus Crew secured 2 wins, Orlando City 1 win, and there was 1 draw. Columbus Crew scored a total of 8 goals, while Orlando City scored 7 goals. The last encounter, on October 4, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. Recent head-to-head results indicate a slight dominance for the home team.
Key Players
For Columbus Crew, Wessam Abou Ali (5 goals, 1 assist, Ă 7.05 rating), Max Arfsten (1 goal, 2 assists, Ă 7.27 rating), and Diego Rossi (2 goals, 0 assists, Ă 6.78 rating) are key offensive players. Wessam Abou Ali shows a declining form with 2 goals in his last 4 games, while Max Arfsten and Diego Rossi also have slightly declining or stable forms.
For Orlando City, MartĂn Ojeda (2 goals, 0 assists, Ă 7.06 rating), IvĂĄn Angulo (0 goals, 2 assists, Ă 6.74 rating), and Tiago (1 goal, 0 assists, Ă 6.70 rating) are noteworthy. MartĂn Ojeda shows stable form with 2 goals in 5 games, IvĂĄn Angulo is also stable with 2 assists in 5 games, and Tiago shows stable form, scoring 1 goal in 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Patrick Schulte (Columbus Crew) has played in 6 games this season, achieving an average rating of 6.75. His team recorded 1 clean sheet this season.
Maxime Crépeau (Orlando City) has played in 5 games and has an average rating of 6.14. His team has recorded 0 clean sheets this season. Maxime Crépeau shows a declining form.
Influences
The provided dataset does not list any specific venue statistics or weather influences.