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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - San Diego

08/02/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.6
Total xG
2.7
San Diego
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
MUSD

Minnesota United

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.29
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Kelvin Yeboah on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)

San Diego

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.11
Alex Mighten on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Diego with Luca Bombino: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Minnesota United with Bongokuhle Hlongwane: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    San Diego: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    San Diego: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Away attacking trend: San Diego currently scores more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.8)
  • Minnesota's home defense: The hosts concede an average of only 1.0 goals in their own stadium
  • Tactical dominance: San Diego recently averaged 5.6 shots on target with 59.4% possession
Risk Factors
  • Missing offensive power for Minnesota United: Top scorer Kelvin Yeboah is missing from the squad
  • Disastrous away defense: San Diego concedes an average of 3.25 goals on the road
  • Low scoring history at Allianz Field: The stadium averages a low 1.6 goals per game
Overview

Minnesota United (9th place, 23 points) host San Diego (12th place, 20 points)

Major League Soccer match at Allianz Field on August 2, 2026, 2:30 AM

Both teams aim to secure crucial points to climb the table

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 49%

Form

Minnesota United is winless in five matches with a form of LLDLD

The hosts recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in this period

San Diego enters with a form of WDLLW, registering 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

The trend is slightly upward for the visitors after their recent 1:0 victory against Dallas

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Minnesota United scores 1.12 goals and concedes 1.41 goals on average this season

San Diego features a strong attack with 1.82 goals scored per game but concedes 1.65 goals

On the road, San Diego concedes an average of 3.25 goals while scoring 1.75 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in history

The record is completely even with 2 wins for each team

The last encounter ended in a 2:1 home victory

Key Players

For Minnesota United, JoaquĂ­n Pereyra (1 goal, 6 assists) and Anthony Markanich Jr. (4 goals, 2 assists) are key

San Diego relies on Marcus Ingvartsen with 11 goals and Anders Dreyer with 6 goals and 7 assists

Not nominated for Minnesota United: Kelvin Yeboah

Not nominated for San Diego: Alex Mighten

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Drake Callender recorded 5 clean sheets for Minnesota United this season

For San Diego, CJ dos Santos has made 4 appearances so far

San Diego has achieved 5 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Allianz Field

The stadium has a low scoring average of 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 40% of the games at Allianz Field

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