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Minnesota United – San Diego1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.63
Total xG
2.67
San Diego
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Kelvin Yeboah on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Alex Mighten on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away attacking trend: San Diego currently scores more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.8)
- Minnesota's home defense: The hosts concede an average of only 1.0 goals in their own stadium
- Tactical dominance: San Diego recently averaged 5.6 shots on target with 59.4% possession
Risks
- Missing offensive power for Minnesota United: Top scorer Kelvin Yeboah is missing from the squad
- Disastrous away defense: San Diego concedes an average of 3.25 goals on the road
- Low scoring history at Allianz Field: The stadium averages a low 1.6 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United49%
Draw28%
San Diego23%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw77%
San Diego or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Diego with Luca Bombino: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Minnesota United with Bongokuhle Hlongwane: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- San Diego: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- San Diego: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Minnesota United 5-4-1 · San Diego 4-3-3
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 3 K. Duncan
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 20 W. Trapp
- 30 O. Géne
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 29 M. Dieng
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 8 O. Valakari
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 19 D. Vazquez
Substitutes
- 7 D. Fitz
- 1 A. Smir
- 2 D. Padelford
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 24 J. Gressel
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 18 D. Ferree
- 20 A. Godoy
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 27 L. Bombino
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 77 A. Mighten
- 9 L. Morgan
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