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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - Sporting KC

08/16/2026, 01:30 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Sporting KC
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CRSK

Colorado Rapids

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.24
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Hamzat Ojediran on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Lucas Herrington not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.71
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Manu García on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting KC: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids with Reggie Cannon: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sporting KC with Shapi Suleymanov: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Sporting KC: 65% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

28%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Model prediction: A home win is mathematically calculated at a 53% probability
  • Defensive contrast: Colorado concedes only 0.82 goals per home match, whereas Sporting KC concedes an average of 4.14 goals away from home
  • Tactical shooting: Sporting KC averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Colorado's 3.8
Risk Factors
  • Struggling offense: Colorado's goal production stagnated recently at an average of 0.8 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.6
  • Defensive instability: Sporting KC has failed to record a single clean sheet throughout this season
  • Away vulnerability: Sporting KC concedes an average of extreme 4.14 goals per match away from home
Overview

Colorado Rapids host Sporting KC

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 3:30 AM

Colorado is in 11th place with 22 points

Sporting KC is in 15th place with 14 points

Crucial match in the lower standings

Form

Colorado Rapids form is LLWLW

Most recent match was a 1-0 win against Austin

Sporting KC form is LLWLL

Summary shows Colorado with 2 wins and 3 losses, Sporting with 1 win and 4 losses

Statistics

Colorado averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game

Home record for Colorado: 1.55 goals scored and 0.82 goals conceded on average

Sporting KC scores 1.0 goal and concedes 2.56 per game on average

Away from home, Sporting KC struggles heavily with 4.14 goals conceded on average

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in total

2 home team wins and 3 away team wins

Goal record of 10:12

Last encounter ended in a 4-1 win for the home team

Key Players

Rafael Navarro has 9 goals and 3 assists with a 7.26 rating

Paxten Aaronson contributes 4 goals and 4 assists with a 7.18 rating

Loïc Williams scored 1 goal with a 7.21 rating

Dejan Joveljić records 8 goals and 1 assist with a 7.00 rating

Calvin Harris scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists with a 6.72 rating

Capita contributes 2 goals and 1 assist with a 6.76 rating

Not nominated: Hamzat Ojediran (1G/1A) and Lucas Herrington (1G/1A) for Colorado, Manu García (2G/4A) for Sporting KC

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Hansen recorded 5 clean sheets for Colorado with a 7.01 rating

Stefan Cleveland has kept 0 clean sheets for Sporting KC this season

Cleveland averages a rating of 6.59

Influences

Colorado shows home strength with 1.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded on average

Matches at Dick's Sporting Goods Park average 2.8 total goals

The game will be played on natural grass

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