Major League Soccer
Cincinnati - New York RB
04/25/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.7
1.7
2:1
9%2:2
7%1:2
7%3:1
6%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
Cincinnati
New York RB
League
The Lab
- 1Cincinnati with Alvas Powell: 7.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2New York RB with Mohammed Sofo : 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3New York RB: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4New York RB: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5New York RB: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
24%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
71%
Under 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
50%
Under 3.5
50%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
71%
No
29%
Key Factors
- New York RB's squad impact is critically reduced: Only 46% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat is available, with Julian Hall (6G/2A), Emil Forsberg (1G/2A), and Jorge Ruvalcaba (3G/0A) not in the lineup
- Cincinnati's offense shows a positive form trend, scoring more frequently with an average of 2.8 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.9 goals
- The mathematical model predicts a higher-scoring game: The probability for both teams to score is 71%, and for over 2.5 goals it is 71%. Expected goals are 2.0 for the home team and 1.7 for the away team
Risk Factors
- Both teams, Cincinnati and New York RB, have only 3 days of rest since their last match
- New York RB concedes an average of 3.5 goals per away game this season
- New York RB averaged 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, which is considered average
Overview
Cincinnati (11th place, 9 points) host New York RB (8th place, 12 points)
Major League Soccer match on April 25, 2026, 7:30 PM
Cincinnati looks to improve its position in the table
Form
Cincinnati's form across all competitions is WLDDD
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games
New York RB's form across all competitions is LWDLD
They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Cincinnati recently drew their last three matches, including a 4-4 against New York City and a 3-3 against Chicago Fire
New York RB most recently drew 4-4 against DC United after a 1-4 loss to CF Montréal
Statistics
Cincinnati averages 1.89 goals scored per game and concedes 2.56 goals per game
At home, Cincinnati averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded
New York RB averages 1.78 goals scored per game and concedes 2.56 goals per game
Away, New York RB averages 1.75 goals scored and 3.5 goals conceded
Both teams scored (BTTS) in 6 of Cincinnati's games and 7 of New York RB's games
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of Cincinnati's games and 7 of New York RB's games
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between these teams
New York RB won 3 of these encounters, Cincinnati won 2, with 0 draws
New York RB scored 9 goals in these matches, Cincinnati 6 goals
The last encounter on April 4, 2026, saw New York RB win 4-2 at home
New York RB has been recently dominant in these matchups
Key Players
Kévin Denkey (Attacker) for Cincinnati has 4 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.08
In the last 5 games, he scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 7.17, showing a stable trend
Evander (Midfielder) for Cincinnati has 2 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.38
In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and provided 0 assists with an average rating of 7.58, showing a rising trend
Pavel Bucha (Midfielder) for Cincinnati has 1 season goal and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.81
In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 6.80, showing a stable trend
Ronald Donkor (Midfielder) for New York RB has 1 season goal and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.11
In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 3 assists with an average rating of 7.17, showing a stable trend
Adri Mehmeti (Midfielder) for New York RB has 1 season goal and 2 assists with an average rating of 6.92
In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 0 assists with an average rating of 6.73, showing a stable trend
Cade Cowell (Attacker) for New York RB has 0 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.74
In the last 5 games, he scored 0 goals and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 6.68, showing a stable trend
Goalkeepers
Roman Celentano of Cincinnati has an average season rating of 6.7 and achieved 1 clean sheet
His form trend shows a decline in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.46
Ethan Horvath of New York RB has an average season rating of 6.67 and also recorded 1 clean sheet
His recent form trend is declining with an average rating of 6.27 in the last 5 games
Influences
Cincinnati scores an average of 1.8 home goals and concedes 1.4 home goals
New York RB scores an average of 1.75 away goals and concedes 3.5 away goals
No weather data or specific venue history is available for this match