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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - Inter Miami

04/18/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Inter Miami
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CRIM

Colorado Rapids

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.7 season average)
+0.21
Darren Yapi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Dante Sealy on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Inter Miami

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.82
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
Weak away record (1.1 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.62
+0.62
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 3
    Colorado Rapids: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Colorado Rapids with Noah Cobb: 8.4 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (4 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Inter Miami with Gonzalo LujƔn: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

27%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Colorado Rapids' Home Strength: The team averages 3.0 goals scored at home and concedes only 0.75 goals, representing a clear home advantage.
  • Offensive Potential of Both Teams: Colorado is currently scoring more frequently (3.4) than their season average (2.7), while Inter Miami consistently scores around 2.2 goals per game.
  • High Scoring Probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a 45% home win for Colorado Rapids, with expected home goals of 1.67 and away goals of 1.28. Additionally, there's a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
Risk Factors
  • Inter Miami's Draw Tendency: Inter Miami has drawn three of their last five matches, including two consecutive draws.
  • Defensive Vulnerabilities of Both Teams: Both teams have conceded an average of 1.71 goals per game this season.
Overview

Colorado Rapids (6th place, 12 points) host Inter Miami (3rd place, 12 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 18, 2026, at 8:30 PM. Both teams are level on 12 points in the upper mid-table.

Form

Colorado Rapids show fluctuating form with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games (Form: WLWLW). They recently won their home game convincingly 6-2. Inter Miami is unbeaten in 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws (Form: WDWDD). They have drawn their last two matches consecutively. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Colorado Rapids are offensively strong with an average of 2.71 goals per game this season and 3.0 home goals per game while conceding only 0.75 goals at home. Overall, they concede 1.71 goals per game. Inter Miami scores an average of 1.86 goals per match and also concedes 1.71 goals. Away from home, they score 1.8 goals and concede 1.6 goals. Both teams have seen both teams score in 5 out of 7 season games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 (Colorado) and 6 (Miami) matches respectively.

Head-to-Head

The teams have met only once before. This single head-to-head encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on April 6, 2024. Both teams scored 2 goals each, indicating an even historical record.

Key Players

For Colorado Rapids, Rafael Navarro stands out with 5 season goals and 3 assists, along with Paxten Aaronson contributing 3 goals and 1 assist. Defender Kosi Thompson has scored 2 goals in 2 appearances. Not nominated are Darren Yapi (2G/2A) and Dante Sealy (0G/2A). For Inter Miami, Lionel Messi is the top scorer with 5 season goals and 1 assist. Mateo Silvetti records 2 goals and 1 assist, while midfielder Telasco Segovia has 1 goal and 3 assists this season.

Goalkeepers

Zack Steffen is in goal for Colorado Rapids, having played 5 season games. Inter Miami's goalkeeper is Dayne St. Clair with 6 season appearances. Both teams recorded one clean sheet this season.

Influences

Colorado Rapids show particular strength at home, averaging 3.0 goals scored and conceding only 0.75 goals per home game. Inter Miami scores an average of 1.8 goals away and concedes 1.6 goals per game.

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