Major League Soccer
DC United - Orlando City
04/25/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%1:2
6%What influences the xG?
DC United
Orlando City
League
The Lab
- 1Orlando City with Tahir Reid-Brown: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Orlando City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3DC United with Gabriel Pirani: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4DC United: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Orlando City: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
27%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for DC United with a 53% probability
- Orlando City conceded 17 goals in their single away game
- DC United is currently scoring more frequently (1.3 goals per game) than their season average (1.1 goals per game) according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
- Tai Baribo is missing for DC United, with only 63% of the usual starting XI goal threat available
- DC United has only 3 days rest since their last match
- Orlando City has only 3 days rest since their last match
Overview
DC United (10th place, 9 points) host Orlando City (13th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 25, 2026, 7:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table and are fighting to move up
Form
DC United's form is DLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions. The team recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. Their last two matches ended in a draw. Orlando City's form is LLDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions. They achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five encounters. Orlando City won their most recent match
Statistics
DC United averages 0.89 goals scored per game and concedes 1.44 goals per game this season. At home, they scored 2 goals and conceded 6 in two games, averaging 1 home goal and 3 goals conceded per home game. Orlando City averages 1.11 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 2.89 goals. In their single away game, they scored 1 goal and conceded 17. The mathematical analysis predicts 1.70 expected goals for DC United and 0.97 for Orlando City. According to Advanced Stats, DC United is currently scoring more frequently (1.3 goals per game) than their season average (1.1 goals per game), indicating a positive trend. Orlando City scores consistently (approximately 1.1 goals per game)
Head-to-Head
In four previous head-to-head matches, DC United failed to secure a win, while Orlando City claimed three victories. One match ended in a draw. The goal difference of 13:4 clearly favors Orlando City. The last encounter on September 13, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Key Players
For DC United, Peglow stands out with 3 assists this season, including 2 in the last 5 games, showing stable form. Jackson Hopkins recorded 1 goal and 2 assists this season, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Matti Peltola registered 1 season goal. For Orlando City, MartĂn Ojeda is the most potent scorer with 4 season goals, 2 of which came in the last 5 matches, maintaining stable form. IvĂĄn Angulo provided 3 assists this season, including one in the last 5 games. Luis OtĂĄvio contributed 1 season goal, which he also scored in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Sean Johnson of DC United made 9 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.78. His rating in the last 5 games was 6.64. DC United has kept 3 clean sheets so far. Maxime Crépeau of Orlando City has played 8 times with an average rating of 6.55, and 6.66 in the last 5 games. Orlando City has not kept a clean sheet this season
Influences
DC United scored 2 goals and conceded 6 goals in 2 home games. Orlando City scored 1 goal and conceded 17 goals in a single away game