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Major League Soccer

DC United - Orlando City

04/25/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
DC United
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Orlando City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUOC

DC United

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.46
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.09
Tai Baribo on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
70% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-0.77
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.03
Tiago on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Marco Paơalić not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 96% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City with Tahir Reid-Brown: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Orlando City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    DC United with Gabriel Pirani: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    DC United: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Orlando City: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

27%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for DC United with a 53% probability
  • Orlando City conceded 17 goals in their single away game
  • DC United is currently scoring more frequently (1.3 goals per game) than their season average (1.1 goals per game) according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
  • Tai Baribo is missing for DC United, with only 63% of the usual starting XI goal threat available
  • DC United has only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Orlando City has only 3 days rest since their last match
Overview

DC United (10th place, 9 points) host Orlando City (13th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 25, 2026, 7:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table and are fighting to move up

Form

DC United's form is DLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions. The team recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. Their last two matches ended in a draw. Orlando City's form is LLDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions. They achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five encounters. Orlando City won their most recent match

Statistics

DC United averages 0.89 goals scored per game and concedes 1.44 goals per game this season. At home, they scored 2 goals and conceded 6 in two games, averaging 1 home goal and 3 goals conceded per home game. Orlando City averages 1.11 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 2.89 goals. In their single away game, they scored 1 goal and conceded 17. The mathematical analysis predicts 1.70 expected goals for DC United and 0.97 for Orlando City. According to Advanced Stats, DC United is currently scoring more frequently (1.3 goals per game) than their season average (1.1 goals per game), indicating a positive trend. Orlando City scores consistently (approximately 1.1 goals per game)

Head-to-Head

In four previous head-to-head matches, DC United failed to secure a win, while Orlando City claimed three victories. One match ended in a draw. The goal difference of 13:4 clearly favors Orlando City. The last encounter on September 13, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

For DC United, Peglow stands out with 3 assists this season, including 2 in the last 5 games, showing stable form. Jackson Hopkins recorded 1 goal and 2 assists this season, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Matti Peltola registered 1 season goal. For Orlando City, MartĂ­n Ojeda is the most potent scorer with 4 season goals, 2 of which came in the last 5 matches, maintaining stable form. IvĂĄn Angulo provided 3 assists this season, including one in the last 5 games. Luis OtĂĄvio contributed 1 season goal, which he also scored in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson of DC United made 9 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.78. His rating in the last 5 games was 6.64. DC United has kept 3 clean sheets so far. Maxime Crépeau of Orlando City has played 8 times with an average rating of 6.55, and 6.66 in the last 5 games. Orlando City has not kept a clean sheet this season

Influences

DC United scored 2 goals and conceded 6 goals in 2 home games. Orlando City scored 1 goal and conceded 17 goals in a single away game

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