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Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - Inter Miami

08/16/2026, 12:30 AM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Inter Miami
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NSIM

Nashville SC

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.82
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.30
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.30
Ahmed Qasem on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Inter Miami

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.53
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.04
GermĂĄn Berterame not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Mateo Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Nashville SC with Warren Madrigal: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Nashville SC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Nashville SC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

27%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Inter Miami's offensive dominance averaging 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • H2H dominance for Inter Miami with 4 wins from the last 5 direct duels
  • The outstanding form of Luis SuĂĄrez with 7 goals in his last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Nashville's stagnating goal production averaging 1.2 goals recently compared to 2.2 on season average
  • Low offensive threat from Nashville SC averaging only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Miami's defensive vulnerability conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away game
Overview

Top clash in Major League Soccer at GEODIS Park

League leaders Nashville SC with 40 points host second-placed Inter Miami with 38 points

A direct battle for the top spot on August 16, 2026, 2:30 AM

Form

Nashville SC with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (Form-String: WWWLD)

Inter Miami is unbeaten in 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw (Form-String: WWWWD)

While Nashville's form trend is declining, Miami remains stable

Statistics

Inter Miami boasts a dangerous attack with 45 goals scored (avg 2.5 per game)

Nashville SC stands out defensively, conceding just 14 goals in 18 games (avg 0.78 per game)

In away matches, Inter Miami scores an average of 2.4 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Clear historical dominance for Inter Miami with 4 wins from 5 head-to-head matches

Nashville SC has won only one direct encounter in this period

The last direct duel ended in a clear 4:0 victory for Inter Miami

Key Players

Sam Surridge shines for Nashville with 11 goals in 12 league appearances

Lionel Messi leads Miami with 12 goals and 8 assists this season

Luis SuĂĄrez is in outstanding shape with 7 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Brian Schwake starts in goal for Nashville with 8 clean sheets this season

Rocco RĂ­os Novo has made 4 appearances for Miami with 4 clean sheets recorded

Influences

GEODIS Park has averaged 2.8 total goals per game in recent matches

The natural grass surface at GEODIS Park provides standard conditions for both teams

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