Match report →
CF Montréal – Nashville SC0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.16
Total xG
3.13
Nashville SC
1.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Prince Owusu not in squad (15 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ríos not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matty Longstaff not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Luca Petrasso not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 82% of goal output missing (only 27% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Nashville SC leads the league with 67 points from 30 matches, CF Montréal ranks 15th with 25 points
- Form: Nashville SC won 4 of their last 5 matches, while CF Montréal lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Nashville SC remains undefeated in all 5 previous meetings with 3 wins and 2 draws
Risks
- Away: Nashville SC scored 1.27 goals per match in 15 league away matches, compared to 3 goals per match at home
- Home: CF Montréal conceded 1.4 goals per match in 15 league home matches, compared to 2.6 goals per match away
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal21%
Draw24%
Nashville SC55%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw45%
Nashville SC or draw79%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.16 : 1.97, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
8%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 11 of 11 games (100%)
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- Nashville SC: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Austin: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- CF Montréal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-2-3-1 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
CF Montréal
- 41 S. Keita
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 28 V. Radojević
- 6 S. Piette
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 29 O. Escobar
- 17 D. Sealy
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 11 E. Saad
- 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
- 1 S. Breza
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 22 V. Loturi
- 23 N. Streit
- 5 B. Craig
- 21 F. Herbers
- 25 F. Amaya
- 1 J. Willis
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 19 A. Muyl
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 22 J. Bauer
- 41 W. Madrigal Molina
- 14 S. Mohammed
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