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Cincinnati – DC United2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
2.51
Total xG
3.70
DC United
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.63 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Tom Barlow on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tyrell Malacia not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tai Baribo on the bench (16 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Silvan Hefti on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 86% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Cincinnati averages 2.57 goals per game at home in the league this season, DC United 1.21 per game away
- xG: Cincinnati generated 2.58 xG per game over 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.6 goals per game
- Table: Cincinnati is 9th in the league with 36 points, while DC United is 13th with 33 points
Risks
- Form: Cincinnati recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 5 games, conceding 2.2 goals per game
- xG: DC United generated 2.16 xG per game over 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati65%
Draw20%
DC United15%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw85%
DC United or draw35%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.51 : 1.19, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
2:2
6%
4:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SJ Earthquakes: 3 goals (80', 82', 90+5')
- DC United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-4-1-2 · DC United 4-4-2
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 24 K. Smith
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 23 D. Douděra
- 20 P. Bucha
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 3 T. Malacia
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 16 T. Barlow
- 9 A. Denkey
DC United
- 26 A. Bono
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 2 K. Nono
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 23 B. Servania
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 9 T. Baribo
- 25 J. Hopkins
Substitutes
- 11 S. Gidi
- 2 A. Powell
- 12 M. Robinson
- 13 E. Louro
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 27 B. Anunga
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 21 M. Miazga
- 88 A. Chirila
- 11 L. Munteanu
- 1 S. Johnson
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 12 W. Antley
- 13 S. Nealis
- 27 N. Markovic
- 48 G. Turner
- 77 H. Kijima
- 24 J. Farr
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 40 K. Reynoso
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