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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Real Salt Lake

05/23/2026, 08:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.7
Total xG
2.9
Real Salt Lake
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
MURSL

Minnesota United

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.29
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Kelvin Yeboah on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Real Salt Lake

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Diego Luna not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Morgan Guilavogui not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake with Griffin Dillon: 8.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Minnesota United with Devin Padelford: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Real Salt Lake: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

27%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Minnesota United with 50%
  • Real Salt Lake's strong offense averages 1.92 goals per game and records Ø 7.0 shots on target in the last 5 games
  • Minnesota United has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches, winning 2 out of 5 while Real Salt Lake won none
Risk Factors
  • Real Salt Lake concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • Minnesota United showed weaker form in the last 5 games with 3 losses
Overview

Minnesota United (7th place, 21 points) host Real Salt Lake (3rd place, 25 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on May 23, 2026, 10:30 PM

Real Salt Lake currently holds a better league position

Form

Minnesota United's form in the last five league games is LWDLL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Most recently, there were two consecutive losses

Real Salt Lake shows a form of LWLWW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The team achieved 3 wins and 2 losses

This includes two consecutive wins

Statistics

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.21 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals

At home, they average 1.25 goals scored and 1 goal conceded

Both teams scored in 7 matches, and 8 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 1.92 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals

Away, they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 9 matches, and 10 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Minnesota United secured 2 wins

Real Salt Lake achieved no wins

3 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is 6:2 in favor of Minnesota United

Minnesota United won the last match 3:1 on August 24, 2025

Minnesota United has been more dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For Minnesota United, Anthony Markanich Jr. (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.14 Rating), JoaquĂ­n Pereyra (1 goal, 4 assists, Avg. 7.20 Rating), and TomĂĄs Chancalay (1 goal, 4 assists, Avg. 7.03 Rating) are important players

Markanich Jr. showed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.32

Pereyra scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Kelvin Yeboah (8 goals, 0 assists) is not in the lineup, leaving 80% of the usual starting XI goal threat available

For Real Salt Lake, Zavier Gozo (6 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.30 Rating), Sergi Solans (6 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.00 Rating), and Juan Manuel Sanabria (0 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 7.09 Rating) are crucial

Gozo scored 4 goals in the last 5 games, and Sergi Solans 1 goal and 2 assists

Diego Luna (4 goals, 1 assist) and Morgan Guilavogui (1 goal, 3 assists) are not in the lineup, with 98% of the usual starting XI goal threat and 95% of assists remaining available

Goalkeepers

Minnesota United's goalkeeper, Drake Callender, has achieved 4 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.85

His form has been slightly declining recently

Real Salt Lake's goalkeeper Rafael Cabral has recorded 2 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.91

Influences

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.25 goals at home and concedes 1 goal

Real Salt Lake shows vulnerability away, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per away game while scoring 1.75 goals themselves

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