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Minnesota United – Real Salt Lake1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.74
Total xG
2.89
Real Salt Lake
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Kelvin Yeboah on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Diego Luna not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Morgan Guilavogui not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Minnesota United with 50%
- Real Salt Lake's strong offense averages 1.92 goals per game and records Ø 7.0 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Minnesota United has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches, winning 2 out of 5 while Real Salt Lake won none
Risks
- Real Salt Lake concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
- Minnesota United showed weaker form in the last 5 games with 3 losses
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United50%
Draw27%
Real Salt Lake24%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw76%
Real Salt Lake or draw50%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Salt Lake: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Real Salt Lake with Griffin Dillon: 8.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- Minnesota United with Devin Padelford: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Minnesota United 3-4-3 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-1-2
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 3 K. Duncan
- 25 N. Triantis
- 30 O. Géne
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 29 M. Dieng
- 8 T. Chancalay
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 15 J. Glad
- 4 L. Engel
- 23 C. Booth
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 6 S. Spierings
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 72 Z. Gozo
Substitutes
- 7 D. Fitz
- 1 A. Smir
- 2 D. Padelford
- 20 W. Trapp
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 17 V. Olatunji
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 26 P. Quinton
- 27 G. Dillon
- 29 S. Junqua
- 38 A. Riquelme
- 21 J. Arias
- 24 M. Kerkvliet
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
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