Major League Soccer
Inter Miami - New York RB
04/11/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.5
1.8
1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
7%1:3
5%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Inter Miami
New York RB
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
25%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
70%
No
30%
Key Factors
- Strong form of Inter Miami: The home team is unbeaten in their last 5 games, showing a positive trend
- Historical dominance: Inter Miami has won 3 of 4 direct encounters against New York RB, scoring significantly more goals
- High goal expectation: The mathematical analysis predicts a high-scoring game with 68% probability for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score
Risk Factors
- Weak away defense: New York RB concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Balanced prediction: The pipeline predicts a very close outcome with 39% away win and 36% home win probabilities
- Injuries for New York RB: J. Che (Hamstring Injury) and A. Marcucci (Cruciate Ligament Injury) are out, C. Harper is doubtful
Overview
Inter Miami (4th place, 11 points) host New York RB (7th place, 10 points) in Major League Soccer
The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 7:30 PM
Both teams are in the upper half of the table, vying to solidify their playoff positions
Form
Inter Miami is in good form with a WWDWD record (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
Inter Miami recently drew 2-2 against Austin
New York RB has shown inconsistent form with a WLDLW record (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
They won their last game 4-2 against Cincinnati
Statistics
Inter Miami averaged 1.83 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.67 goals
They kept 1 clean sheet
Both teams scored in 4 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 games
New York RB scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.17 goals per match
They kept 1 clean sheet
Both teams scored in 4 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 games
Inter Miami scored 2 goals and conceded 2 goals in their single home game
New York RB conceded an average of 2.67 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Inter Miami secured 3 wins, while New York RB won 1 time
There have been no draws between the two teams
Inter Miami scored a total of 15 goals, New York RB 8 goals
Inter Miami won the last encounter 5-1 away on July 19, 2025
Key Players
For Inter Miami, Lionel Messi is a key player with 5 goals and 1 assist in 5 season appearances
Telasco Segovia contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in 6 appearances
Mateo Silvetti scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 games
For New York RB, Julian Hall stands out with 5 season goals in 6 games
Emil Forsberg recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 appearances
Adri Mehmeti has provided 2 assists in 6 season games
Goalkeepers
Inter Miami's goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair had 1 clean sheet for his team in 5 appearances
New York RB's goalkeeper Ethan Horvath made 6 appearances and contributed to 1 clean sheet for his team
Influences
Inter Miami scored 2 goals and conceded 2 goals in their single home game
New York RB conceded an average of 2.67 goals per away game
Home advantage could play a role for Inter Miami, especially against the opponent's vulnerable away defense