🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - DC United

05/10/2026, 01:15 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
1.6
Total xG
2.9
DC United
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NSDU

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.16
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
-0.61
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.31
Declining form (2 vs 2.6 season average)
-0.19
Patrick Yazbek on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Warren Madrigal on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 91% available)

DC United

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.39
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.24
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 10.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Nashville SC: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    DC United with Jared Stroud: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    DC United: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Nashville SC's strong home record with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded in the season
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 46% for Nashville SC and 1.65 expected home goals
  • DC United shows a positive offensive form development, with an average of 2.25 goals in recent games, compared to 1.18 in the season average
Risk Factors
  • Nashville SC's goal production has slightly decreased recently, with an average of 2.0 goals in the last games compared to 2.6 in the season average
  • DC United has a slightly better record in past head-to-head matches, with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Nashville SC
  • DC United's counter-oriented playing style, with an average of 4.8 shots on target, could challenge Nashville SC's defense
Overview

Nashville SC (1st place, 23 points) host DC United (5th place, 15 points) in Major League Soccer

May 10, 2026, 1:15 AM

Nashville SC is currently the league leader, while DC United is positioned in the middle of the table

Form

Nashville SC's last 5 matches show a form of LWWWD

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last match ended in a draw

DC United has a form of LDDWW

These are 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 games

Their last match was a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nashville SC scored an average of 2.1 goals per game this season and conceded only 0.6 goals per game

In home games, the average is 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded

They kept a clean sheet in 5 matches

DC United scored an average of 1.18 goals per game this season and conceded 1.36 goals

Away, they scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded 1.0 goals

DC United kept a clean sheet in 4 matches

In 4 games involving both teams, both teams scored, and in 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Nashville SC, 2 wins for DC United, and 1 draw

The goal difference is 5:6 in favor of DC United

The last encounter on June 28, 2025, ended with a 1:0 victory for Nashville SC

DC United proved to be the more dominant team in recent direct encounters

Key Players

For Nashville SC, Hany Mukhtar is a key player, contributing 3 goals and 4 assists in 10 season appearances, achieving an average rating of 7.22

Cristian Espinoza showed 3 goals and 3 assists in 10 games with a rating of 7.36, though his form recently declined slightly

Andy Nájar is a rising performer in defense with 2 assists and a rating of 7.08 in 9 games

For DC United, Louis Munteanu stands out, scoring 3 goals in 7 appearances with a rating of 6.98, showing rising form

Jackson Hopkins contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in 11 games with a rating of 6.95

Matti Peltola scored 1 goal in 11 games and achieved a rating of 7.06

Goalkeepers

For Nashville SC, Brian Schwake is in goal, achieving an average rating of 6.84 in 10 season appearances and contributing to 5 clean sheets

For DC United, Sean Johnson is the goalkeeper, with an average rating of 6.83 in 11 appearances and 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Nashville SC showed strong offense and solid defense at home, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded

DC United scored an average of 1.14 goals away and conceded 1.0 goals, representing a solid but less dominant away performance

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.