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Major League Soccer

New England - Philadelphia Union

05/09/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
New England
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Philadelphia Union
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NEPU

New England

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-1.02
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.52
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.09
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Philadelphia Union

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.61
Rising form (1.7 vs 1 season average)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.16
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
22% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    New England with Jackson Yueill: 11.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union with Alejandro Bedoya : 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Philadelphia Union: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

29%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • New England's home strength: The team averaged 1.86 home goals scored and conceded only 0.29 goals per home game
  • New England's current form: Five consecutive games unbeaten, with 4 wins and 1 draw
  • Philadelphia Union's weak away record: Only 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 away games
Risk Factors
  • Historical dominance of Philadelphia Union: The away team won all 4 head-to-head matches
  • New England's goal production stagnates: Recently averaged 1.4 goals compared to season average of 1.8
Overview

New England (3rd place, 19 points) host Philadelphia Union (15th place, 6 points) in Major League Soccer on May 10, 2026, 12:30 AM. New England aims to solidify its strong table position. Philadelphia Union is fighting for crucial points at the bottom of the table to avoid relegation.

Form

New England shows strong form with WWWDW in their last five matches (4 wins, 1 draw). Their last game was a win against Charlotte. Philadelphia Union, on the other hand, has mixed form with WDDLD in their last five matches (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Their last match ended in a draw against Nashville SC. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New England has scored an average of 1.8 goals per game this season and conceded 1.2 goals. At home, the team is particularly strong with an average of 1.86 goals scored and only 0.29 goals conceded per home game. Both teams scored in 6 out of 10 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches. Philadelphia Union averages only 0.82 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded. Away from home, their average is 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Both teams scored in 6 out of 11 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches.

Head-to-Head

In 4 previous head-to-head encounters, Philadelphia Union dominated with 4 wins, while New England has yet to secure a victory. The goal difference is 1:11 in favor of Philadelphia Union. The last meeting on September 20, 2025, ended in a 1:0 win for Philadelphia Union.

Key Players

For New England, midfielder Carles Gil is a key player with 3 goals and 2 assists, holding a season average rating of 7.36. He showed stable form in the last 5 games with 3 goals and 1 assist. Attacker Luca Langoni contributed 1 goal and 6 assists with a rating of 6.98. Dor Turgeman, also in attack, scored 2 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 6.96, showing stable form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games. For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski is the top attacker with 2 goals and 1 assist and an average rating of 6.99. Midfielder Danley Jean Jacques has scored 2 goals with a rating of 6.84. Defender Nathan Harriel contributed 1 goal and has an average rating of 7.00.

Goalkeepers

New England's goalkeeper, Matt Turner, has a season average rating of 7.38 and kept 3 clean sheets. Andre Blake, Philadelphia Union's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 6.80 and recorded 2 clean sheets.

Influences

New England demonstrates a strong home advantage, averaging 1.86 goals scored and only 0.29 goals conceded per home game. Philadelphia Union, conversely, scores an average of 0.78 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per away game.

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