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Major League Soccer

New York RB - Columbus Crew

05/13/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
New York RB
1.4
Total xG
3.2
Columbus Crew
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

7%
What influences the xG?
NYRCC

New York RB

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-1.17
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.66
Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
10% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Columbus Crew

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+1.17
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.65
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.44
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Diego Rossi on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 69% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    New York RB with Robert Voloder: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    New York RB: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew with AndrƩs Herrera: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 4.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

25%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Columbus Crew with 46%
  • Columbus Crew dominated recent head-to-head matches, winning the last encounter 3:1
  • New York RB conceded an average of 2.33 goals per game this season, indicating a defensive weakness
Risk Factors
  • Columbus Crew is missing Diego Rossi, with only 70% of the usual starting XI goal production available
  • Columbus Crew had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Columbus Crew conceded an average of 1.86 goals per away game
Overview

New York RB (9th place, 15 points) host Columbus Crew (11th place, 12 points) at Red Bull Arena

Major League Soccer match on May 13, 2026, 11:30 PM

Both teams are in the middle of the table and aim to improve their standings

Form

New York RB's form across all competitions is LDLLW

The team recently recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Columbus Crew's form across all competitions is LWWLL

They have achieved 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New York RB averages 1.58 goals scored per game and concedes 2.33 goals

Columbus Crew averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 1.58 goals

New York RB has seen both teams score in 8 out of 12 games (BTTS)

Columbus Crew has seen both teams score in 8 out of 12 games (BTTS)

An average of 4.2 goals are scored per game at Red Bull Arena

In 4 out of 5 games at this stadium, both teams scored (BTTS rate 80%)

3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals (Over 2.5 rate 60%)

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, New York RB secured 1 win

Columbus Crew won 2 encounters, while 2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is 6:8 in favor of Columbus Crew

The last meeting on October 18, 2025, ended in a 3:1 victory for Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew dominated recent matchups

Key Players

Jorge Ruvalcaba is an important attacker with 4 season goals

Ronald Donkor shines with 1 season goal and 4 assists

Julian Hall has scored 6 season goals and provided 2 assists

Max Arfsten showed goal threat with 3 season goals and 4 assists

Taha Habroune is a midfield engine with 1 season goal and 2 assists

Hugo Picard contributed 1 season goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Ethan Horvath of New York RB has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Patrick Schulte of Columbus Crew has kept 2 clean sheets

Influences

New York RB scored an average of 1.5 goals in home games and conceded 1.83 goals

Columbus Crew scored an average of 1.29 goals away and conceded 1.86 goals

Red Bull Arena has seen an average of 4.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches

The probability of both teams scoring is 80% at this stadium

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the last 5 games at Red Bull Arena

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