Major League Soccer
New York City - Cincinnati
04/22/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.8
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
New York City
Cincinnati
League
The Lab
- 1Cincinnati with Alvas Powell: 7.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2New York City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Cincinnati: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 12)
- 4New York City: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Cincinnati: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
28%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Severe Away Weakness: Cincinnati concedes an average of 6.00 goals per away game
- Offensive Form Trend: Cincinnati is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals)
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors New York City with a 44% win probability
Risk Factors
- Keaton Parks (2G/0A) is not in New York City's lineup, affecting 7% of the usual starting XI's goal threat
- Cincinnati has had only 4 days rest since their last match
Overview
New York City (7th place, 11 points) host Cincinnati (10th place, 8 points) in a Major League Soccer fixture
The match is scheduled for April 22, 2026, 11:30 PM
New York City are 3 points ahead of Cincinnati in the league table and aim to improve their standing
Form
New York City's form across all competitions is WLDLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
They have recorded two consecutive losses recently
Cincinnati shows a form of LWLDD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
They have recently played two consecutive draws
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
New York City averages 1.88 goals scored per game and concedes 1.38 goals
At home, they are stronger offensively with an average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded
Cincinnati averages 1.63 goals scored per game and concedes 2.38 goals
Away from home, they have scored an average of 2.00 goals but conceded an alarming 6.00 goals per game
New York City has 1 clean sheet, Cincinnati also has 1
Both teams scored in 6 New York City games and 5 Cincinnati games
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 New York City games and 4 Cincinnati games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New York City dominated with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Cincinnati
One match ended in a draw
New York City scored a total of 5 goals, while Cincinnati managed 2 goals
The last encounter was won by Cincinnati with a 1:0 score on August 23, 2025
Key Players
NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau is an important midfielder with 6 season goals and shows stable form with 4 goals in his last 5 games
Maxi Moralez has provided 5 assists this season and holds an average rating of 7.42
AgustĆn Ojeda contributes to the offense with 2 season goals and 1 assist
For Cincinnati, KĆ©vin Denkey is crucial with 2 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 games
Ender Echenique has contributed 1 season goal and 2 assists, showing stable form
Evander, a midfielder, records 1 goal and 1 assist this season and shows a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
New York City's goalkeeper, Matt Freese, has played in 8 games with an average rating of 6.95
New York City has recorded 1 clean sheet this season
Roman Celentano is Cincinnati's goalkeeper, playing in 6 matches with a rating of 6.76
Cincinnati has achieved 1 clean sheet this season
Influences
New York City's home strength is reflected in an average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per home game
Cincinnati concedes an average of 6.00 goals per away game, indicating significant away weakness