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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - Orlando City

05/09/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Orlando City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CMOC

CF Montréal

Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.38
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.27
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Orlando City

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.23
Tiago on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Zakaria Taifi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    CF Montréal: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    CF Montréal with Samuel Piette  : 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Orlando City with Tahir Reid-Brown: 8.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    CF Montréal: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

27%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Strong Home Defense: CF Montréal has conceded an average of only 0.75 goals per home game
  • Weak Away Defense: Orlando City concedes an extremely high average of 4.6 goals per away game
  • Home Win Forecast: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 53% probability and 1.73 predicted goals for CF Montréal
Risk Factors
  • Head-to-Head: Orlando City is unbeaten against CF Montréal in their last 5 direct encounters (1 win, 4 draws)
  • Orlando City's Rising Offense: Orlando City's offense shows a positive form trend, with an average of 2.2 goals per game recently compared to the season average of 1.45 goals
Overview

CF Montréal (Place 14, 9 points) host Orlando City (Place 13, 10 points) in the Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 09, 2026, 10:30 PM. Both teams are fighting for crucial points at the bottom of the table.

Form

CF Montréal's current form (last 5 games): LLWWL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Orlando City's form: DLWLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. CF Montréal suffered a loss in their last game, while Orlando City comes into this match with a win.

Statistics

CF Montréal scores an average of 1.4 goals per game and concedes 2.3 goals. Orlando City has an average of 1.45 goals scored and 2.91 goals conceded per game. In home games, CF Montréal scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 0.75 goals. Orlando City concedes an average of 4.6 goals per away game. Both teams scored in 5 CF Montréal games and 7 Orlando City games. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 9 CF Montréal games and 9 Orlando City games.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 4 draws. CF Montréal has not won any of these duels, while Orlando City has recorded 1 win. The last encounter on March 14, 2026, ended with a 1:2 win for Orlando City. Overall, CF Montréal scored 4 goals, and Orlando City scored 5 goals.

Key Players

For CF Montréal, Prince Owusu (6 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 7.26 Rating) with stable form, Matty Longstaff (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.19 Rating) with rising form and Wikelman José Carmona Torres (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.48 Rating) with declining form are important players. For Orlando City, Martín Ojeda (7 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 7.39 Rating) with rising form, Justin Ellis (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg. 7.04 Rating) with stable form and Tyrese Spicer (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 7.09 Rating) with rising form are significant players. According to Orlando City's lineup check, Tiago (1T/1A) and Zakaria Taifi (0T/2A) are not in the lineup.

Goalkeepers

CF Montréal's goalkeeper, Thomas Guilier, and Orlando City's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, face each other. CF Montréal recorded 2 clean sheets, while Orlando City has not managed a single clean sheet this season.

Influences

CF Montréal shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game. In contrast, Orlando City concedes an average of 4.6 goals per away game.

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