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Major League Soccer

San Diego - Los Angeles FC

05/03/2026, 01:30 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
San Diego
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Los Angeles FC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SDLAF

San Diego

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.95
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.51
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.12
Lewis MorganĀ  on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Los Angeles FC

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.49
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Heung-min Son on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists)
Timothy Tillman not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Mark Delgado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Mathieu ChoiniĆØre on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 55% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Los Angeles FC with Tyler Boyd: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    San Diego: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    San Diego with Amahl Pellegrino: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    San Diego: 74% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

29%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a close match with a slight home win probability of 38% for San Diego and 33% for Los Angeles FC
  • San Diego's goal production has significantly decreased recently (avg. 0.8 goals per game), while Los Angeles FC maintains a stable scoring rate (avg. 2.25 goals per game)
  • San Diego won both previous head-to-head encounters against Los Angeles FC (5:3 overall goal difference)
Risk Factors
  • Los Angeles FC's starting lineup is significantly weakened, with only 56% of their usual attacking strength available without Heung-min Son (0T/6A), Timothy Tillman (0T/2A), Mark Delgado (1T/1A), and Mathieu ChoiniĆØre (2T/0A)
  • San Diego is in a clear crisis of form, with five consecutive losses
  • Despite dominant possession (63%), San Diego recorded an average of only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

San Diego (11th place, 11 points) hosts Los Angeles FC (3rd place, 20 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 3, 2026, 3:30 AM. Los Angeles FC aims for a top spot in the league table, while San Diego seeks to move away from the bottom half

Form

San Diego's current form is poor, marked by five consecutive losses ('LLLLL'). In these matches, San Diego recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses. Los Angeles FC shows mixed form ('WLLDW') with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games. The mathematical model predicts a tight game with a 38% home win probability for San Diego and a 33% away win probability for Los Angeles FC. The probability of a draw is 29%

Statistics

San Diego averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per game. At home, they are stronger offensively with an average of 1.83 goals and defensively more solid with 1.0 goals conceded per home game. Los Angeles FC also averages 1.7 goals scored per game but impresses with only 0.6 goals conceded on average this season. Away from home, Los Angeles FC scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.0 goal. San Diego had 3 clean sheets, while Los Angeles FC achieved 8 clean sheets. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of San Diego's games and 4 of Los Angeles FC's games

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, San Diego dominated the record. San Diego won 2 games, while Los Angeles FC secured no victories. The goal difference stands at 5:3 in favor of San Diego. The last encounter on September 1, 2025, ended with a 2:1 victory for San Diego

Key Players

For San Diego, Anders Dreyer (5 goals, 3 assists) and Marcus Ingvartsen (5 goals, 2 assists) are key offensive players. Onni Valakari contributes with 3 goals and 1 assist in midfield. San Diego's usual starting eleven strength is at 100%, however, Lewis Morgan (0T/2A) is not in the lineup. In the Los Angeles FC team, Denis Bouanga (4 goals, 1 assist) stands out, having recently scored 3 goals in 5 games. Stephen Eustaquio (1 goal, 1 assist) and Jude Terry (1 goal) are other important players

Goalkeepers

San Diego's goalkeeper CJ dos Santos has made no appearances this season. On the opposing side, Hugo Lloris has played 9 times for Los Angeles FC and recorded 8 clean sheets. Overall, San Diego kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Los Angeles FC recorded 8 clean sheets

Influences

San Diego shows a more stable defense at home with an average of 1.0 goals conceded, compared to 1.7 goals conceded in their season average. Offensive performance is also slightly better with 1.83 home goals compared to their season average. Los Angeles FC has a solid away defense, with an average of 1.0 goals conceded and 2.0 goals scored

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