Major League Soccer
Toronto - Philadelphia Union
04/22/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.8
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Toronto
Philadelphia Union
League
The Lab
- 1Philadelphia Union with Cavan Sullivan: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Philadelphia Union: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Toronto: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Toronto: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
28%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Mathematical analysis: Toronto has a home win probability of 43%
- Current form: Toronto is unbeaten in 5 games (DWWDD), while Philadelphia Union shows a weaker record (LLLWD)
- Offensive strength: Toronto averaged 6.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Philadelphia Union's 3.8 shots
Risk Factors
- The mathematical analysis indicates a draw probability of 28%
- Toronto has conceded an average of 1.33 home goals per game this season
Overview
Toronto (6th place, 12 points) host Philadelphia Union (13th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 22, 2026, 7:30 PM. Toronto aims to consolidate its position in the table, while Philadelphia Union seeks to move away from the bottom.
Form
Toronto is in good form with a DWWDD (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) record in their last five games across all competitions. Their last match ended in a draw. Philadelphia Union shows weaker form with LLLWD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last five games across all competitions, with their last match being a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Toronto scored 10 goals and conceded 8 in their last five games, while Philadelphia Union scored 5 goals and conceded 8.
Statistics
Toronto averages 1.63 goals scored per game and concedes 1.75 goals per game this season. At home, they score 1.67 goals and concede 1.33 goals per home game. Philadelphia Union averages 0.75 goals scored per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game. Away from home, they score 0.8 goals and concede 1.4 goals per away game. Both teams scored in 6 of Toronto's games and 5 of Philadelphia Union's games (BTTS). Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 games for both teams this season.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, both Toronto and Philadelphia Union have secured 1 win each, with 2 draws. Both teams have scored 4 goals in these encounters. The last meeting on August 9, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw, confirming the even balance of recent results.
Key Players
For Toronto, DĂĄniel SallĂłi (3 goals, 1 assist), Richie Laryea (2 goals, 1 assist), and Josh Sargent (1 goal, 1 assist) are key players. For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski (1 goal, 1 assist), Japhet Sery Larsen (1 goal, 0 assists), and JesĂșs Bueno (1 goal, 0 assists) stand out. A. Anello (1 goal, 0 assists) is not nominated for Philadelphia Union.
Goalkeepers
Toronto's goalkeeper Luka Gavran has an average rating of 6.53 in 8 season appearances and kept 1 clean sheet. Andre Blake, Philadelphia Union's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 6.85 in 8 season appearances and also kept 1 clean sheet.
Influences
Toronto demonstrates a solid home performance, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Philadelphia Union scores an average of 0.8 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per away game, indicating lower offensive efficiency. The provided dataset does not contain specific venue or weather data.